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Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.98: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality.

Black Hills Corporation is a regulated utility serving ~227,000 electric customers in CO, MT, SD, WY and ~1,138,000 gas customers in AR, CO, IA, KS, NE, WY through Electric and Gas Utilities segments. It owns 1,386 MW of generation and operates under cost-of-service regulation... Read more

$73.98+0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#12 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-8.65%
IncomeYield3.80%(5y avg 3.97%)Payout71.12%
Stop $70.48Target $74.39(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$83.00+12.2%5 analysts
$74.39our TP
$73.98price
$83.00mean
$87

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.98: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Black Hills Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.4% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.3
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn12.6%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth-3.0%
Beta0.72
Dividend3.80%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommodityNatural Gas29%
    10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas | | 29.3 | % | | 29.4 | % | | 26.4 | %'
  • MEDIUMCommodityCoal26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Coal | | 25.5 | % | | 32.5 | % | | 35.0 | %'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.5
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.11Resistance $75.91

Price Targets

$70
$74
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.98: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $70.48. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.39 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $70.48. Stop-loss: $70.48.

What are the risks of investing in BKH?

Target reached (-2.4% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is BKH overvalued or undervalued?

Black Hills Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BKH?

9 analysts cover BKH with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $83.

What does Black Hills Corporation do?Black Hills Corporation is a regulated utility serving ~227,000 electric customers in CO, MT, SD, WY and ~1,138,000 gas...

Black Hills Corporation is a regulated utility serving ~227,000 electric customers in CO, MT, SD, WY and ~1,138,000 gas customers in AR, CO, IA, KS, NE, WY through Electric and Gas Utilities segments. It owns 1,386 MW of generation and operates under cost-of-service regulation by FERC and eight state commissions; an all-stock merger with NorthWestern Energy (agreed August 2025) is expected to close in second half of 2026.

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