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Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company serving over 400 electric, gas, and combination utility customers across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Revenue is ~78% from long-term master service agreements with investment-grade... Read more

$37.38-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
Stop $35.18Target $36.80(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$31.34-16.2%7 analysts
$36.80our TP
$37.38price
$31.34mean
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 20 customers (65.0%)
Target reached (-27.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)140.7
P/E (Fwd)35.8
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn0.8%
ROE3.1%
Rev Growth19.7%
Beta0.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV82%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 20 customers65%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 65% of our revenues were generated collectively from our top 20 customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Centuri board elected Steven E. Nielsen as director effective March 20, 2026, filling a vacancy from board size increase to nine members. Nielsen spent 31 years at Dycom Industries as CEO and Chairman. No committee assignments at time of filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 12 days

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Roe
1.0
Fcf Quality
1.6
Operating Margin
1.8
Roa
1.9
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.3
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.83Resistance $37.55

Price Targets

$35
$37
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.3%), High leverage (D/E 1.6)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.18. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.80 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $35.18. Stop-loss: $35.18.

What are the risks of investing in CTRI?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 20 customers (65.0%); Target reached (-27.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is CTRI overvalued or undervalued?

Centuri Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 140.7 (forward 35.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRI?

14 analysts cover CTRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Centuri Holdings, Inc. do?Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company serving over 400 electric, gas, and...

Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company serving over 400 electric, gas, and combination utility customers across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Revenue is ~78% from long-term master service agreements with investment-grade utilities; top 20 customers represent 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues.

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