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Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.96: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company providing maintenance, replacement, and installation services for electric and gas distribution and transmission networks across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Revenue is primarily from... Read more

$28.96+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#3 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-1.05%
Stop $27.47Target $31.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$35.79+23.6%7 analysts
$31.13our TP
$28.96price
$35.79mean
$46

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.96: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Centuri Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 20 customers (65.0%)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)80.4
P/E (Fwd)28.7
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth31.5%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C15.00bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 20 customers65%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 20 customers are almost exclusively investment-grade utilities and represented 65% of our revenues during fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers48%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 48% of our revenues were generated collectively from our top ten customers and approximately 65% of our revenues were generated collectively from our top 20 customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded from 8 to 9 members; Steven E. Nielsen elected to fill vacancy effective March 20, 2026. Former Chairman/CEO of Dycom Industries for 25 years. No committee assignment yet.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.5
Roe
1.5
Roa
2.1
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
6.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -99% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.32Resistance $42.98

Price Targets

$27
$31
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.96: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $27.47. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.13 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $27.47. Stop-loss: $27.47.

What are the risks of investing in CTRI?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 20 customers (65.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is CTRI overvalued or undervalued?

Centuri Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 80.4 (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRI?

14 analysts cover CTRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Centuri Holdings, Inc. do?Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company providing maintenance, replacement, and...

Centuri Holdings is a North American utility infrastructure services company providing maintenance, replacement, and installation services for electric and gas distribution and transmission networks across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Revenue is primarily from long-term master service agreements (78% of fiscal 2025 revenue) with investment-grade electric and gas utilities; top 20 customers were 65% of revenue. Scale and multi-geography presence create high barriers for displacement from existing MSA relationships.

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