At a forward P/E of 5.6x, Coty screens as deeply discounted, but four consecutive earnings misses, declining revenue, business quality below the minimum threshold, and a hard death-cross signal in place indicate the discount reflects genuine fundamental stress rather than a recoverable opportunity.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Accounting Loss→Stable
- Deep Value Discount Risk Trap→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Coty Inc. (COTY) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality.
Coty Inc. sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin/body care through Consumer Beauty and Prestige segments in approximately 123 countries, employing 11,636 full-time employees. Prestige fragrance represented approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues; brands include owned... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Coty Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Coty Strikes ~$400M Agreement To Transition Guccy Beauty License Back To Kering — benzinga Jul 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS Coty Will Integrate Prestige R&D And Sustainability With Supply Chain Into One Simplified Function Under The Interim Lea — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Coty Executive Chairman, Interim CEO Markus Strobel To Oversee Prestige Commercial Business; Co. To Merge Prestige R&D, — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Top 3 Risk Off Stocks that May Explode In Q2 — benzinga May 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Coty, Raises Price Target to $2.8 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T09:12:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductprestige fragrance60%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 60% of our fiscal 2025 net revenues were attributable to prestige fragrance'
- MEDIUMProductbrands under term license agreements37%10-K Item 1: 'Products representing 37% of our fiscal 2025 sales are under exclusive license agreements granted to us for use on a worldwide and/or regional basis with a remaining duration spanning from 7 to 25 years'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMFour directors resigned (Beatrice Ballini, Isabelle Parize, Anna Adeola Makanju immediately; Gordon von Bretten from Board only; Robert Singer effective June 30, 2026). Five new independent directors simultaneously appointed. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $2.46. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $2.73 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $2.46. Stop-loss: $2.46.
Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%); Target reached (2.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).
Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $3.
What does Coty Inc. do?Coty Inc. sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin/body care through Consumer Beauty and Prestige segments in...
Coty Inc. sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin/body care through Consumer Beauty and Prestige segments in approximately 123 countries, employing 11,636 full-time employees. Prestige fragrance represented approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues; brands include owned labels like CoverGirl and Sally Hansen alongside licensed brands like Gucci, Hugo Boss, and Burberry.