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e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Negative momentum.

e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand cosmetics and skin care company selling under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, Well People, and Keys Soulcare brands at accessible price points through Target, Walmart, Ulta, Amazon, and other retailers. The majority of products are sourced... Read more

$62.22+36.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 13 Household & Personal Products
Stop $57.86Target $85.02(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$94.47+51.8%15 analysts
$85.02our TP
$62.22price
$94.47mean
$135

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 37%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.5
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA59.2
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth37.8%
Beta2.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$45-27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Matthew Farrell appointed to e.l.f. Beauty Board as a Class I director effective February 12, 2026; will stand for election at 2026 annual meeting. Former CEO and Chairman of Church & Dwight. No arrangement or related party interest cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $58.54Resistance $71.23

Price Targets

$58
$85
A.Upside+36.6%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $85.02 (+36.6%), stop $57.86 (−7.5%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.02 (+36.7% upside). Target $85.02 (+36.6%), stop $57.86 (−7.5%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Stop-loss: $57.86.

What are the risks of investing in ELF?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued?

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.5 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ELF?

20 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $94.

What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand cosmetics and skin care company selling under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium,...

e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand cosmetics and skin care company selling under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, Well People, and Keys Soulcare brands at accessible price points through Target, Walmart, Ulta, Amazon, and other retailers. The majority of products are sourced and manufactured in China, creating tariff and supply chain exposure.

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