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e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $54.28 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (81.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based manufacturers.

e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand beauty company selling cosmetics and skin care under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, Well People and Keys Soulcare through major retail and e-commerce channels. The U.S. represents 81% of net sales; Target (23%), Walmart (16%), Ulta Beauty... Read more

$51.70+62.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.70%
Entry $54.28(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $48.30Target $79.50(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$88.33+70.9%15 analysts
$79.50our TP
$51.70price
$88.33mean
$135

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $54.28 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (81.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based manufacturers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.7Qual5.8Grw10.0Mom1.0Sent7.3Ins3.7Peer4.4Tech6.4Risk3.65.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (81.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based manufacturers

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.9
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA52.9
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth37.8%
Beta2.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV119%elevated
Max Pain$40-22.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerTarget23%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty and Amazon, accounted for 23%, 16%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart16%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty and Amazon, accounted for 23%, 16%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States81%
    10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 81% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.'
  • HIGHSupplierChina-based manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    e.l.f. Beauty Board appointed Matthew Farrell (former Church & Dwight CEO/Chairman) as Class I director effective February 12, 2026, to stand for election at the 2026 annual stockholder meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $51.41Resistance $67.88

Price Targets

$48
$54
$80
A.Upside+53.8%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELF stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $54.28 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (81.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based manufacturers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $79.50 (+53.8%), stop $48.30 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 8.9:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.50 (+62.5% upside). Target $79.50 (+53.8%), stop $48.30 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 8.9:1. Stop-loss: $48.30.

What are the risks of investing in ELF?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (81.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based manufacturers.

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued?

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.9 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ELF?

21 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $88.

What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand beauty company selling cosmetics and skin care under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN,...

e.l.f. Beauty is a multi-brand beauty company selling cosmetics and skin care under e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, Well People and Keys Soulcare through major retail and e-commerce channels. The U.S. represents 81% of net sales; Target (23%), Walmart (16%), Ulta Beauty (12%) and Amazon (12%) together account for 63% of net sales.

Related stocks: SPB (Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.) · IPAR (Interparfums, Inc.) · COTY (Coty Inc.) · CHD (Church & Dwight Company, Inc.) · NWL (Newell Brands Inc.)