The company is the industry growth leader with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and free cash flow running at 31% of revenue despite a GAAP accounting loss, but the stock trades within 1% of the analyst price ceiling, a 21% short interest creates substantial overhang, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average limits the near-term setup quality despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Strength Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Short Interest Downtrend Overhang→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 21, 2026· older than 90 days
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (Coinbase Tokenized Stock) (ELFC) Price Prediction for 2026 to 2031 - Bybit — Bybit Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Elf Beauty options signal 12% move on Nov. 4 earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty Stock Is Up 7% This Week: Does the Growth Justify the Price? - TIKR.com — TIKR.com Aug 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS e.l.f. Brands Will Surprise and Delight as the Only Beauty Brand at the Minnesota State Fair - e.l.f. Beauty — e.l.f. Beauty Aug 26, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerTarget18%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerWalmart13%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerAmazon11%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerSephora10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States79%10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $105.41 reached (−7.2%), stop $105.68 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $105.41 reached (−7.2% from $113.63); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $105.41 reached (−7.2%), stop $105.68 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $105.68.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 115.9 (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts rate ELF, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $117.
What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.