The company is the industry growth leader with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and free cash flow running at 31% of revenue despite a GAAP accounting loss, but the stock trades within 1% of the analyst price ceiling, a 21% short interest creates substantial overhang, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average limits the near-term setup quality despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Strength Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Short Interest Downtrend Overhang→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Wait for pullback to $69.71. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.47. Engine's entry $69.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more
Wait for pullback to $69.71. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.47. Engine's entry $69.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF) Stock Price Up 9.5% - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Co-Founder’s Priesthood Journey Renews Focus On E.l.f. Beauty’s Culture - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS ELF Stock Jumps As Earnings Beat Offsets Margin Fears - StocksToTrade — StocksToTrade positive
- NEWS 5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From e.l.f. Beauty’s Q1 Earnings Call - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Intuit, E.l.f. Beauty and more - CNBC — CNBC neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T09:31:42Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerTarget18%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerWalmart13%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerAmazon11%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerSephora10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States79%10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $69.71. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.47. Engine's entry $69.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $78.80 (+7.3%), stop $60.63 (−21.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $78.80 (+12.9% upside). Target $78.80 (+7.3%), stop $60.63 (−21.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $60.63.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 173.7 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
21 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $72.
What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.