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ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Buy Wait5.9·$67.12+4.90%
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e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Wait for pullback to $59.74. BUY gates pass at $67.12, but concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $59.74 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more

$67.12+15.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.22%
Entry $59.74(50-day MA)Stop $55.56Target $68.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$71.75+6.9%16 analysts
$68.89our TP
$67.12price
$71.75mean
$50
$90

Wait for pullback to $59.74. BUY gates pass at $67.12, but concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $59.74 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.60)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)145.4
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA59.9
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta2.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$210+212.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerTarget18%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
  • LOWCustomerAmazon11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
  • LOWCustomerSephora10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States79%
    10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.6
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.82Resistance $70.30

Price Targets

$56
$60
$69
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELF stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $59.74. BUY gates pass at $67.12, but concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $59.74 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $68.89 (+2.6%), stop $55.56 (−20.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.89 (+15.3% upside). Target $68.89 (+2.6%), stop $55.56 (−20.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $55.56.

What are the risks of investing in ELF?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued?

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 145.4 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ELF?

21 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $72.

What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...

e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.

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