At a forward P/E of 5.6x, Coty screens as deeply discounted, but four consecutive earnings misses, declining revenue, business quality below the minimum threshold, and a hard death-cross signal in place indicate the discount reflects genuine fundamental stress rather than a recoverable opportunity.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Accounting Loss→Stable
- Deep Value Discount Risk Trap→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Coty Inc. (COTY) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.
Coty is a beauty company selling prestige and mass fragrance, skin care and color cosmetics through retailers and licensed brands. About 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues came from prestige fragrance; Coty manufactures about 81% of its products itself, and 37% of sales are under... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Coty Inc.
About Coty Inc.
Coty Inc. sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care products under a portfolio of owned and licensed brands — including Gucci, Burberry, Calvin Klein, and CoverGirl — across roughly 123 countries and territories, with about 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues from prestige fragrance. Walmart and A.S. Watson, its top two retailers, each accounted for around 4% of total net revenues, and the company employed about 11,636 people across 36 countries as of June 30, 2025.
The company earns revenue primarily from wholesale sales of owned and licensed beauty brands: 48% of fiscal 2025 net revenues came from owned or perpetually licensed brands and 37% from products under exclusive license agreements averaging 24 years in length. Distribution runs through a multi-channel network — hypermarkets, drugstores, and mid-tier department stores for mass brands, and perfumeries, department stores, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce for prestige lines — supplemented by third-party distributors in some markets. Coty manufactures about 81% of its products internally, primarily in the United States, Brazil, and Europe, sourcing the remaining 19% from third-party manufacturers; principal raw materials are essential oils, alcohols, and specialty chemicals, with essential oils generally sourced from fragrance houses. Innovation runs through in-house research centers for fragrance in Switzerland, skincare in Monaco, body care in Brazil, and cosmetics in the U.S., feeding new launches timed around the winter-holiday-driven second fiscal quarter.
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Coty's revenue is structurally tied to a small number of licensed luxury names: some 91% of prestige-fragrance revenue in fiscal 2025 came from just seven brands, a group that includes licensed names such as Gucci and Burberry, and none of those seven licenses comes up for non-automatic renewal before 2028. Because license agreements impose minimum-sales and royalty obligations that Coty has breached in the past, losing or failing to renew a license within that group — rather than any single retailer relationship — is the concentration the 10-K flags as most consequential. Separately, certain retailers already account for over 10% of net revenues in specific geographies, including the U.S., a dependence the filing says is deepening as retail consolidation continues.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Coty Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Coty Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Coty, Raises Price Target to $3 — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Coty Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Coty, Raises Price Target to $2.75 — benzinga Aug 25, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures Fall as Trump Launches ‘Operation Economic Fury’ on Iran— BUL — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Coty Posts Mixed Q4 Results, Joins Wolfspeed, ATRenew And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Thursday’s Pre-Market Session — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-16T11:42:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductprestige fragrance60%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 60% of our fiscal 2025 net revenues were attributable to prestige fragrance, of which approximately 91% was from our top seven prestige fragrance brands'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOWDirectors Beatrice Ballini, Isabelle Parize and Anna Adeola Makanju resigned from the Board effective March 18, 2026; Robert Singer resigns effective June 30, 2026; Gordon von Bretten stepped down from the Board but stays in his executive role. No disagreements cited; new director appointments announced.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $2.97. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $3.67 (-27.5% upside). Prior stop was $2.97. Stop-loss: $2.97.
Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%); Target reached (-27.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $3.
What does Coty Inc. do?Coty is a beauty company selling prestige and mass fragrance, skin care and color cosmetics through retailers and...
Coty is a beauty company selling prestige and mass fragrance, skin care and color cosmetics through retailers and licensed brands. About 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues came from prestige fragrance; Coty manufactures about 81% of its products itself, and 37% of sales are under exclusive licenses.