Coty Inc. (COTY) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the COTY stock price target?

Take-profit $2.87 (+42.4% upside). Prior stop was $1.94.

Q: What are the risks of investing in COTY?

Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is COTY overvalued or undervalued?

Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about COTY?

23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $3.

Q: What does Coty Inc. do?

Coty is one of the world's largest beauty companies with owned and licensed brands across fragrance (Burberry, Calvin Klein, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Marc Jacobs), color cosmetics (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Max Factor), and skincare sold in 123 countries. Approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues come from prestige fragrance; JAB Beauty B.V. controls ~54% of outstanding shares. No single global retailer exceeds 10% of net revenues.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2 days ago (May 18, 2026, 12:36 PM ET)

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.02: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

$2.02+42.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 13 Household & Personal Products

QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield22.21%

Stop $1.94Target $2.87(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1

Analyst target$3.19+57.8%15 analysts

$2.87our TP

$2.02price

$3.19mean

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Coty Inc.

Latest news

Top 3 Risk Off Stocks that May Explode In Q2 — benzinga May 20, 2026 neutral
Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Coty, Raises Price Target to $2.8 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
TD Cowen Maintains Hold on Coty, Raises Price Target to $2.9 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
Coty Sees FY2026 Adj EPS $0.33-$0.35 vs $0.27 Est — benzinga May 5, 2026 positive
Coty Q3 Adj. EPS $(0.03) Misses $(0.00) Estimate, Sales $1.282B Beat $1.271B Estimate — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%)

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)5.8

Mkt Cap$1.8B

EV/EBITDA6.6

Profit Mgn-9.2%

ROE-13.9%

Rev Growth-1.3%

Beta1.06

DividendNone

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductprestige fragrance60%
10-K Item 1: 'approximately 60% of our fiscal 2025 net revenues were attributable to prestige fragrance'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
Major board restructuring on March 18, 2026: 4 directors resigned (Ballini, Parize, Makanju immediately; Singer effective June 30, 2026); Gordon von Bretten stepped down from Board (stays as executive). 5 new independent directors appointed: Fischer, Kunze-Concewitz (Remuneration Chair), Gogi, Liuni, Plaines (Audit/Finance Chair).
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.415%1.41

Quality3.115%0.46

Growth6.115%0.91

Momentum1.710%0.17

Sentiment6.510%0.65

Insider Activity5.310%0.53

Peer Rank3.410%0.34

Technical Setup6.65%0.33

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst2.15%0.11

Overall (Σ contributions)5.13

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Macd

2.9

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Erm

3.5

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Roa

1.4

Current Ratio

3.3

Moat

4.0

Fcf Quality

5.4

Piotroski F

5.6

Gross Margin

8.6

FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 22.2%)No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.0

Growth Rank

0.0

Value Rank

8.5

GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 94d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

30 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.00Resistance $2.71

Price Targets

A.Upside+42.1%

A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-20 (94d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is COTY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.02: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $1.94. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2.87 (+42.4% upside). Prior stop was $1.94. Stop-loss: $1.94.

What are the risks of investing in COTY?

Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is COTY overvalued or undervalued?

Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COTY?

23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Coty Inc. do?Coty is one of the world's largest beauty companies with owned and licensed brands across fragrance (Burberry, Calvin...

Coty is one of the world's largest beauty companies with owned and licensed brands across fragrance (Burberry, Calvin Klein, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Marc Jacobs), color cosmetics (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Max Factor), and skincare sold in 123 countries. Approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues come from prestige fragrance; JAB Beauty B.V. controls ~54% of outstanding shares. No single global retailer exceeds 10% of net revenues.