At a forward P/E of 5.6x, Coty screens as deeply discounted, but four consecutive earnings misses, declining revenue, business quality below the minimum threshold, and a hard death-cross signal in place indicate the discount reflects genuine fundamental stress rather than a recoverable opportunity.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Accounting Loss→Stable
- Deep Value Discount Risk Trap↓Deteriorating
- Persistent Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Coty Inc. (COTY) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Coty Inc. makes fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care products under owned and licensed brands such as CoverGirl, Rimmel, and Gucci, sold in about 123 countries across its Consumer Beauty and Prestige segments. The company manufactures about 81% of products in-house... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Coty Inc.
About Coty Inc.
Coty Inc. generated approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues from prestige fragrance, with about 91% of that share coming from its top seven fragrance brands, while employing approximately 11,636 full-time employees across more than 36 countries. The company sells products in about 123 countries, and in fiscal 2025 no single retailer exceeded 10% of global net revenues, though Walmart and A.S. Watson each accounted for roughly 4%.
The company earns revenue through both owned brands and exclusive licenses: 48% of fiscal 2025 net revenues came from owned or perpetually licensed brands, while 37% came from products under exclusive license agreements with remaining terms of 7 to 25 years, and Coty maintained 22 brand licenses as of June 30, 2025, with none of its top seven licenses up for non-automatic renewal before 2028. Coty manufactures approximately 81% of its products in facilities in the United States, Brazil, and Europe, with third-party manufacturers producing the remaining 19%; principal raw materials, including essential oils, alcohols, and specialty chemicals, are sourced largely from fragrance houses that also supply formulation technology. Mass beauty brands sell primarily through hypermarkets, supermarkets, drug stores, and mid-tier department stores, while prestige products move through perfumeries, department stores, and duty-free shops, and Coty competes against large multinational consumer-products companies, private-label brands, and smaller niche entrants.
Show full overview
Beyond global retailer diversification, Coty's 10-K discloses that certain retailers account for over 10% of net revenues within specific geographies, including the United States, meaning channel risk concentrates unevenly by market even though no single retailer tops 10% company-wide. The filing also states that Coty's brand licenses may be terminated if specified conditions are not met and that renewal on favorable terms is not guaranteed, a risk sharpened by the fact that some brands, including CoverGirl, have already experienced shelf-space losses at retailers amid ongoing retail consolidation.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Coty Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Coty Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Coty Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Coty, Raises Price Target to $2.75 — benzinga Aug 25, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures Fall as Trump Launches ‘Operation Economic Fury’ on Iran— BUL — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Coty Posts Mixed Q4 Results, Joins Wolfspeed, ATRenew And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Thursday’s Pre-Market Session — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Futures Fall as Trump Launches 'Operation Economic Fury' on Iran— BULL, WMT, MRK — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-26T04:01:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductprestige fragrance60%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 60% of our fiscal 2025 net revenues were attributable to prestige fragrance'
- HIGHProducttop seven prestige fragrance brands91%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 91% was from our top seven prestige fragrance brands'
- MEDIUMProductexclusive license agreements37%10-K Item 1: 'Products representing 37% of our fiscal 2025 sales are under exclusive license agreements granted to us for use on a worldwide and/or regional basis'
- LOWCustomerWalmart4.0%10-K Item 1: 'Walmart and A.S. Watson, our top retailers, each accounted for approximately 4% of total Coty Inc. net revenues'
- LOWCustomerA.S. Watson4.0%10-K Item 1: 'Walmart and A.S. Watson, our top retailers, each accounted for approximately 4% of total Coty Inc. net revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMDirectors Beatrice Ballini, Isabelle Parize, and Anna Adeola Makanju resigned effective immediately March 18, 2026; Robert Singer will resign June 30, 2026; Gordon von Bretten stepped down from the Board but stays in his executive role. No disagreement with the Company cited; Board expanded to 10 with five new independent directors appointed same day.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $2.46. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $2.92 (-11.4% upside). Prior stop was $2.46. Stop-loss: $2.46.
Concentration risk — Product: prestige fragrance (60.0%); Concentration risk — Product: top seven prestige fragrance brands (91.0%); Target reached (-11.4% upside).
Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $3.
What does Coty Inc. do?Coty Inc. makes fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care products under owned and licensed brands such as...
Coty Inc. makes fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care products under owned and licensed brands such as CoverGirl, Rimmel, and Gucci, sold in about 123 countries across its Consumer Beauty and Prestige segments. The company manufactures about 81% of products in-house in the U.S., Brazil, and Europe, and about 60% of fiscal 2025 net revenues came from prestige fragrance, driven largely by its top seven fragrance brands.