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Coty Inc. (COTY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.44: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Coty is a global beauty company with brands across fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care in Prestige (Gucci, Marc Jacobs, Burberry) and Consumer Beauty (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen) segments. Revenue is generated through retail and e-commerce sales of owned and... Read more

$2.44+14.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 13 Household & Personal Products
Stop $2.26Target $2.78(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$3.09+26.8%15 analysts
$2.78our TP
$2.44price
$3.09mean
$2
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.44: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn-9.1%
ROE-12.6%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV131%elevated
Max Pain$1-79.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerkey retailers (>10% of net revenues in certain geographies)
    10-K Item 1A: 'certain retailers account for over 10% of our net revenues in certain geographies, including the U.S.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board restructuring: Ballini, Parize, Makanju resigned immediately; Singer to resign June 30, 2026; von Bretten moved to exec role. Five new independent directors appointed (Fischer, Kunze-Concewitz, Gogi, Liuni, Plaines). No disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 5 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.8
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.0
Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.4
Current Ratio
3.2
Operating Margin
3.9
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.3
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.7
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 18.3%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.95Resistance $2.49

Price Targets

$2
$3
A.Upside+13.9%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COTY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.44: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $2.26. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2.78 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $2.26. Stop-loss: $2.26.

What are the risks of investing in COTY?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is COTY overvalued or undervalued?

Coty Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COTY?

23 analysts cover COTY with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Coty Inc. do?Coty is a global beauty company with brands across fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care in Prestige...

Coty is a global beauty company with brands across fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care in Prestige (Gucci, Marc Jacobs, Burberry) and Consumer Beauty (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen) segments. Revenue is generated through retail and e-commerce sales of owned and licensed brands worldwide.

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