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CAVACAVA Group, Inc.Hold5.6·$62.05-1.84%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CAVA delivers sector-leading 32% year-over-year revenue growth and ranks as the top growth name among restaurant peers, yet the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple above 118x with negative free cash flow and barely 1% of headroom to near-term technical resistance — the growth story is compelling but current prices already reflect considerable optimism.

Thesis pillars

  • Sector Leading Restaurant GrowthStable
  • Stretched Growth MultipleStable
  • Negative Free Cash FlowStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable bowls and pitas alongside consumer packaged goods sold in grocery stores. With approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and a digital revenue mix of... Read more

$62.05+35.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 32 Restaurants
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-0.16%
Stop $59.06Target $83.74(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$93.04+49.9%24 analysts
$83.74our TP
$62.05price
$93.04mean
$55
$110

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Expensive valuation; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and news soft fda negative. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CAVA Group, Inc.

About CAVA Group, Inc.

CAVA Group operated 439 fast-casual CAVA Restaurants across 28 states and Washington, D.C. at the close of fiscal 2025, with a digital revenue mix of 37.9% of total CAVA Revenue, up from 36.4% in fiscal 2024. Production facilities in Laurel, Maryland (30,000 square feet) and Verona, Virginia (55,000 square feet) centrally manufacture the brand's signature dips, spreads, and dressing bases. The company employs approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and 580 within manufacturing and its Collaboration Center Organization.

CAVA earns revenue through in-restaurant dining, digital pick-up, drive-thru pick-up (available at 75 locations at December 28, 2025), delivery, catering in select markets, and consumer packaged goods. All 439 locations are company-operated, not franchised, meaning food, beverage, packaging, labor, and occupancy costs flow directly through to the income statement. The supply chain draws on more than 50 grower, rancher, and producer partners; the 10-K notes the company continuously evaluates supply chain diversity to secure sourcing needs ahead of growth. Labor regulation exposure includes California Assembly Bill No. 1228, which created a state council to set minimum wages for fast-food workers, alongside federal standards under the Fair Labor Standards Act. The CPG segment distributes dips, spreads, and prepared dressings through grocery retail channels, complementing the restaurant business and adding a second revenue stream.

Show full overview

CAVA's labor profile concentrates hourly restaurant team members — approximately 12,900 workers across 439 locations — under a patchwork of federal and state minimum wage laws. If similar fast-food wage legislation spreads beyond California to other states where the company operates, labor cost could weigh on restaurant-level margins. The company is also in the early stages of a catering program it intends to expand to an additional test market in 2026, adding operational complexity before the channel is proven at scale.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

From CAVA Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 35%
Risks
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (13 sells, 3.86% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)121.6
P/E (Fwd)82.4
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA49.1
Profit Mgn4.8%
ROE8.0%
Rev Growth32.1%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV77%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Director Karen Kochevar informed CAVA Group on April 16, 2026 that she would retire from the Board upon expiration of her current term at the June 22, 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Retirement not the result of any disagreement with the company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
4.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
4.8
Ps
6.5
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 82.4xPEG: 1.74
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5INSIDER 3.86%=EXTREMENEWS SOFT FDA NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.89Resistance $85.73

Price Targets

$59
$84
A.Upside+35.0%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 3.86%=extreme
! NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAVA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Expensive valuation; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $83.74 (+35.0%), stop $59.06 (−5.1%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.74 (+35.0% upside). Target $83.74 (+35.0%), stop $59.06 (−5.1%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $59.06.

What are the risks of investing in CAVA?

Expensive valuation; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (13 sells, 3.86% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is CAVA overvalued or undervalued?

CAVA Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 121.6 (forward 82.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CAVA?

36 analysts cover CAVA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $93.

What does CAVA Group, Inc. do?CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable...

CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable bowls and pitas alongside consumer packaged goods sold in grocery stores. With approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and a digital revenue mix of 37.9% in fiscal 2025, the company generates revenue through in-restaurant dining, digital channels, delivery, and CPG product sales.

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