CAVA is an industry growth leader (31% YoY) with a three-quarter beat streak and 25.4% analyst upside, but a 79x forward P/E, negative free cash flow conversion and earnings due in 3 days make it a speculative recovery.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Growth Leadership→Stable
- Extreme Valuation Multiple↓Deteriorating
- Weak Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. At $61.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable bowls and pitas alongside consumer packaged goods sold in grocery stores. With approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and a digital revenue mix of... Read more
Sell if holding. At $61.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About CAVA Group, Inc.
About CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA Group operated 439 fast-casual CAVA Restaurants across 28 states and Washington, D.C. at the close of fiscal 2025, with a digital revenue mix of 37.9% of total CAVA Revenue, up from 36.4% in fiscal 2024. Production facilities in Laurel, Maryland (30,000 square feet) and Verona, Virginia (55,000 square feet) centrally manufacture the brand's signature dips, spreads, and dressing bases. The company employs approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and 580 within manufacturing and its Collaboration Center Organization.
CAVA earns revenue through in-restaurant dining, digital pick-up, drive-thru pick-up (available at 75 locations at December 28, 2025), delivery, catering in select markets, and consumer packaged goods. All 439 locations are company-operated, not franchised, meaning food, beverage, packaging, labor, and occupancy costs flow directly through to the income statement. The supply chain draws on more than 50 grower, rancher, and producer partners; the 10-K notes the company continuously evaluates supply chain diversity to secure sourcing needs ahead of growth. Labor regulation exposure includes California Assembly Bill No. 1228, which created a state council to set minimum wages for fast-food workers, alongside federal standards under the Fair Labor Standards Act. The CPG segment distributes dips, spreads, and prepared dressings through grocery retail channels, complementing the restaurant business and adding a second revenue stream.
Show full overview
CAVA's labor profile concentrates hourly restaurant team members — approximately 12,900 workers across 439 locations — under a patchwork of federal and state minimum wage laws. If similar fast-food wage legislation spreads beyond California to other states where the company operates, labor cost could weigh on restaurant-level margins. The company is also in the early stages of a catering program it intends to expand to an additional test market in 2026, adding operational complexity before the channel is proven at scale.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From CAVA Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — CAVA Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cava Group Inc (CAVA) Stock Up 4.6% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 52/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS CAVA enters its 31st state with a restaurant opening in Wisconsin (CAVA:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cava Group (CAVA) Reports Next Week: What Awaits? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CAVA Stock Jumped 14% Today. Here’s Where the Stock Is Headed in 2026 - TIKR.com — TIKR.com Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why CAVA Group Stock Popped Today - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Aug 12, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWDirector Karen Kochevar informed CAVA Group on April 16, 2026 that she would retire from the Board upon expiration of her current term at the June 22, 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Retirement not the result of any disagreement with the company. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $61.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $57.64. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $73.13 (+18.0% upside). Prior stop was $57.64. Stop-loss: $57.64.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Expensive valuation.
CAVA Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 112.7 (forward 83.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
35 analysts rate CAVA, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 24 analysts publish price targets averaging $81.
What does CAVA Group, Inc. do?CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable...
CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C., serving customizable bowls and pitas alongside consumer packaged goods sold in grocery stores. With approximately 12,900 team members in restaurants and a digital revenue mix of 37.9% in fiscal 2025, the company generates revenue through in-restaurant dining, digital channels, delivery, and CPG product sales.