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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.75: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C. as of December 28, 2025, serving customizable bowls and pitas. Revenue comes primarily from restaurant sales; digital orders represented 37.9% of CAVA Revenue in fiscal 2025, and the... Read more

$93.75+2.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#18 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $87.47Target $96.81(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$86.88-7.3%26 analysts
$96.81our TP
$93.75price
$86.88mean
$55
$110

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.75: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-16.9% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.8), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.07% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)168.7
P/E (Fwd)125.6
Mkt Cap$10.6B
EV/EBITDA79.8
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth20.9%
Beta2.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$45-52.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Director Karen Kochevar informed CAVA she will retire from the Board upon term expiration at the 2026 Annual Meeting on June 22, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.3
Ps
4.1
Forward P/E: 125.6xPEG: 3.65Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $77.20Resistance $98.79

Price Targets

$87
$97
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.8), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.07% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.75: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $87.47. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.81 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $87.47. Stop-loss: $87.47.

What are the risks of investing in CAVA?

Target reached (-16.9% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.8), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.07% of cap).

Is CAVA overvalued or undervalued?

CAVA Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 168.7 (forward 125.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAVA?

35 analysts cover CAVA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $87.

What does CAVA Group, Inc. do?CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C. as of December 28,...

CAVA Group operates 439 fast-casual Mediterranean restaurants in 28 states and Washington, D.C. as of December 28, 2025, serving customizable bowls and pitas. Revenue comes primarily from restaurant sales; digital orders represented 37.9% of CAVA Revenue in fiscal 2025, and the company also sells CPG dips and spreads in grocery stores.

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