Arcos Dorados combines a forward P/E of 7.7x, a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and 40% upside to the analyst target with weak momentum, leverage and below-average quality, so it is a speculative catalyst play around the November 12 report.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Leverage And Sector Headwind↓Deteriorating
- Deep Value Analyst Upside→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Aug 12, 2026
Recent Developments — Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO) Rating Lowered to Hold at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 12, 2026 negative
- NEWS Arcos Dorados: The Quarter Being Reported Has Everything Going Its Way (NYSE:ARCO) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kothari and Jaiswal seize 74.44% of Arco Leasing as open offer draws just 300 shares - Dealroom — Dealroom Aug 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ARCO STOCK : ON THE VERGE OF BREAKOUT | ARCOS DORADOS STOCK Hilary Duff (63kkPtAign) - Mshale — Mshale Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) Is Up 6.7% After Q1 2026 Earnings Jump, Has The Bull Case Changed? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st May 20, 2026 positive
Latest item Aug 12, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.48. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $9.43 (+38.5% upside). Prior stop was $6.48. Stop-loss: $6.48.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.6 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts rate ARCO, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 9 analysts publish price targets averaging $11.
What does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. do?Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own,...
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.