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ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.Sell6.4·$8.21+0.12%
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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil,... Read more

$8.21+16.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.56%
IncomeYield3.41%Payout22.52%sustainable
Stop $7.80Target $9.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$11.04+34.5%9 analysts
$9.60our TP
$8.21price
$11.04mean
$14

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202672d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE36.3%
Rev Growth12.9%
Beta0.47
Dividend3.41%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.04Resistance $9.26

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+16.9%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.80. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.

What is the ARCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.60 (+16.9% upside). Prior stop was $7.80. Stop-loss: $7.80.

What are the risks of investing in ARCO?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARCO?

14 analysts cover ARCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. do?Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own,...

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.

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