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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $7.83. At $8.77 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.83 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil,... Read more

$8.77+11.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield7.10%
IncomeYield3.47%Payout23.76%sustainable
Entry $7.83(Gap Fill 50 Sticky)Stop $7.20Target $9.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$10.69+21.9%9 analysts
$9.30our TP
$8.77price
$10.69mean
$14

Wait for pullback to $7.83. At $8.77 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.83 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.3Qual4.4Grw2.6Mom3.0Sent6.0Ins5.0Peer6.3Tech5.6Risk4.55.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE33.2%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta0.48
Dividend3.47%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV98%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.04Resistance $9.53

Price Targets

$7
$8
$9
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R1.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $7.83. At $8.77 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.83 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $9.30 (+6.0%), stop $7.20 (−21.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the ARCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.30 (+11.6% upside). Target $9.30 (+6.0%), stop $7.20 (−21.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $7.20.

What are the risks of investing in ARCO?

Thin upside margin: 7.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ARCO?

14 analysts cover ARCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. do?Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own,...

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.

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