Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARCO stock price target?

Take-profit $9.30 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $8.14.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ARCO?

Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARCO?

14 analysts cover ARCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $8.78, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.5%.

$8.78+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 20 Restaurants

Stop $8.14Target $9.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1

Analyst target$10.69+21.8%9 analysts

$9.30our TP

$8.78price

$10.69mean

$14

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 43%

Risks

Thin upside margin: 6.5%

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6

P/E (Fwd)10.0

Mkt Cap$1.8B

EV/EBITDA6.4

Profit Mgn4.5%

ROE33.2%

Rev Growth10.7%

Beta0.49

Dividend3.23%

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish

IV56%elevated

Max Pain$3-71.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.215%1.23

Quality4.315%0.64

Growth2.615%0.39

Momentum3.110%0.31

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.510%0.65

Technical Setup6.55%0.33

Risk Profile4.85%0.24

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)5.29

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

5.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

3.1

Rsi

5.5

Ma Position

6.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

55 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.14Resistance $9.75

Price Targets

A.Upside+5.9%

A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $8.78, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.5%. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.14. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the ARCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.30 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $8.14. Stop-loss: $8.14.

What are the risks of investing in ARCO?

Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARCO?

14 analysts cover ARCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. do?Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. The company has the exclusive right to...

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. The company has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.