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Wingstop Inc. (WING) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which approximately 98% are franchised. Revenue comes from royalties (6% of gross sales) and advertising fees (5.5% of gross sales) from franchisees, plus company-owned... Read more

$129.00+68.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.49%
IncomeYield0.93%(5y avg 0.41%)Payout28.89%sustainable
Stop $119.97Target $217.09(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$235.97+82.9%30 analysts
$217.09our TP
$129.00price
$235.97mean
$305

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Wingstop Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.9
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA20.8
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.86
Dividend0.93%
Rating analysts38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierone distributor for all food and packaging
    10-K Item 1A: 'all food items and packaging goods for Wingstop restaurants are currently sourced through one distributor with 23 geographically diverse distribution centers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
16 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $116.06Resistance $204.12

Price Targets

$120
$217
A.Upside+68.3%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WING stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $119.97. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the WING stock price target?

Take-profit target: $217.09 (+68.3% upside). Prior stop was $119.97. Stop-loss: $119.97.

What are the risks of investing in WING?

Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is WING overvalued or undervalued?

Wingstop Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.9 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WING?

38 analysts cover WING with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $236.

What does Wingstop Inc. do?Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which...

Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which approximately 98% are franchised. Revenue comes from royalties (6% of gross sales) and advertising fees (5.5% of gross sales) from franchisees, plus company-owned restaurant operations. Domestic average unit volume was ~$2.0 million in fiscal 2025; digital sales exceed 60% of system sales.

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