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Wingstop Inc. (WING) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $163.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Wingstop is the largest fast casual chicken wing-focused restaurant chain globally, with more than 3,050 locations worldwide of which approximately 98% are operated by independent franchisees. Revenue comes primarily from royalties and advertising fees charged to franchisees as... Read more

$163.53+55.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#9 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $151.74Target $253.43(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$275.47+68.5%30 analysts
$253.43our TP
$163.53price
$275.47mean
$400

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $163.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 55%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.2
P/E (Fwd)29.9
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA26.0
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta
Dividend0.70%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$85-48.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierone distributor
    10-K Item 1A: 'all food items and packaging goods for Wingstop restaurants are currently sourced through one distributor with 23 geographically diverse distribution centers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $142.24Resistance $204.64

Price Targets

$152
$253
A.Upside+55.0%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WING stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $163.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $151.74. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WING stock price target?

Take-profit target: $253.43 (+55.3% upside). Prior stop was $151.74. Stop-loss: $151.74.

What are the risks of investing in WING?

Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor; Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is WING overvalued or undervalued?

Wingstop Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.2 (forward 29.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WING?

37 analysts cover WING with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Wingstop Inc. do?Wingstop is the largest fast casual chicken wing-focused restaurant chain globally, with more than 3,050 locations...

Wingstop is the largest fast casual chicken wing-focused restaurant chain globally, with more than 3,050 locations worldwide of which approximately 98% are operated by independent franchisees. Revenue comes primarily from royalties and advertising fees charged to franchisees as a percentage of gross sales, plus franchise fees. Domestic average unit volume was approximately $2.0 million in fiscal 2025.

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