Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the CHA stock price target?

Take-profit $14.61 (+43.7% upside). Prior stop was $9.54.

Q: What are the risks of investing in CHA?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA.

Q: Is CHA overvalued or undervalued?

Chagee Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about CHA?

12 analysts cover CHA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 15 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 1:36 AM ET)

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$10.19+43.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 20 Restaurants

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield65.90%

Stop $9.54Target $14.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.7:1

Analyst target$16.79+64.8%9 analysts

$14.61our TP

$10.19price

$16.79mean

$25

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Earnings estimates trending UP

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 44%

Risks

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2

P/E (Fwd)5.7

Mkt Cap$1.9B

EV/EBITDA-3.0

Profit Mgn9.1%

ROE21.1%

Rev Growth-10.8%

Beta—

DividendNone

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.515%1.43

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.110%0.21

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.710%0.47

Technical Setup5.45%0.27

Risk Profile7.75%0.39

Catalyst5.75%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)5.90

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Volume

1.8

Macd

2.1

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 5.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

40 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.84Resistance $11.44

Price Targets

$10

$15

A.Upside+43.4%

A.R:R5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-29 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CHA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $9.54. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.61 (+43.7% upside). Prior stop was $9.54. Stop-loss: $9.54.

What are the risks of investing in CHA?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is CHA overvalued or undervalued?

Chagee Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHA?

12 analysts cover CHA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Chagee Holdings Limited do?Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in...

Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It also engages in supply chain product sales; brand, marketing, and management; and information technology activities. In addition, the company operates its teahouses online. Chagee Holdings Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.