Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: external oak barrel supplier.
Brown-Forman manufactures and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits and RTD brands in over 170 countries, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. The United States represented 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025; the company sells through distributors, state governments, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: external oak barrel supplier. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman generated 56% of net sales outside the United States in fiscal 2025, with the U.S. at 44%, Mexico at 7%, Germany at 6%, Australia at 5%, and the United Kingdom at 4% of consolidated net sales. The company's Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of revenue across a portfolio of more than 40 spirits and ready-to-drink products sold in over 170 countries, employing approximately 5,000 people on six continents, including 2,000 in the United States and 800 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Brown-Forman earns revenue from branded spirits volume sold through distributors, state governments in control states, and 17 owned-distribution companies operating in 18 countries as of May 2025. Input costs span agricultural commodities — agave, corn, barley, rye, molasses, and wood — plus glass and aluminum packaging. The company recently closed its last remaining barrel-making operation and now sources all oak barrels for North American whiskeys from a single external supplier. A single glass producer supplies most of the company's glass requirements. Woodford Reserve sold over 1.8 million nine-liter cases in fiscal year ended April 30, 2025. Principal competitors include Diageo PLC, Pernod Ricard SA, and Becle S.A.B. de C.V. at premium-and-above price points, along with national companies and craft spirit brands in the United States.
Show full overview
Two raw-material dependencies are material: the company now sources all oak barrels from a single external supplier following closure of its own barrel-making operations, and a single glass producer supplies most of its glass requirements. The 10-K notes that if either supplier could not meet capacity, quality, or timing requirements, it would be difficult and more expensive to produce and deliver products. These single-source exposures are compounded by the inherent inventory risk of an aged-spirits portfolio — Jack Daniel's and the company's tequilas are each distilled at single locations, and Scotch whisky brands require an average of 12 years of maturation.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-06-17T10:36:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomerlargest customer13%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
- HIGHSupplierexternal oak barrel supplier10-K Item 1A: 'we recently closed our last remaining barrel-making operation. As a result, we now source our oak barrels in which we age our North American whiskeys from an external supplier'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026. Peters succeeds Leanne D. Cunningham, who retires May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP at Whirlpool Corporation since January 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: external oak barrel supplier. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $25.21. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.81 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $25.21. Stop-loss: $25.21.
Concentration risk — Supplier: external oak barrel supplier; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits and RTD brands in over 170 countries, led by...
Brown-Forman manufactures and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits and RTD brands in over 170 countries, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. The United States represented 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025; the company sells through distributors, state governments, and owned distribution companies in 18 countries. Brown-Forman employs approximately 5,000 people on six continents.