BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak High Magnitude→Stable
- Deep Value Forward Multiple→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Conditional: analysts disagree (2.7× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Buy now at $9.99. A.R:R 11.4:1 at $9.99 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $18.11 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$8 per share to target. Key risk: Elevated risk factors.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales... Read more
Buy now at $9.99. A.R:R 11.4:1 at $9.99 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $18.11 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$8 per share to target. Key risk: Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Score 7.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ORLADEYO (berotralstat), BioCryst's oral once-daily prophylactic HAE therapy, received FDA approval in December 2020 for patients 12 years and older, followed by a second FDA approval in December 2025 for a pediatric pellet formulation for patients aged 2 to under 12. BioCryst targets a global peak of $1 billion in annual ORLADEYO net revenues, based on five full years of U.S. commercialization and an HAE prevalence of 1 in 33,000 to 1 in 67,000 people. In October 2025, the company completed the sale of its European ORLADEYO operations to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million, while retaining exclusive supply obligations for the European territory.
BioCryst generates revenue from direct ORLADEYO sales in the U.S. through a specialty pharmacy operating the EMPOWER Patient Services program. Japan commercialization is handled by Torii Pharmaceutical under a tiered royalty agreement ranging from 20% on annual sales below a prespecified threshold to 80% above it; pan-Latin America is covered by Pint Pharma under an exclusive collaboration. Peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) had a $69 million HHS contract for up to 95,625 doses over five years, but in May 2025 the U.S. ASPR notified the company of its intent not to exercise any additional optional ordering periods under the agreement. The company funded ORLADEYO development in part through royalty purchase agreements with RPI 2019 Intermediate Finance Trust and OMERS Capital Markets, creating ongoing royalty payment obligations distinct from traditional debt. Following the January 23, 2026 merger with Astria Therapeutics, navenibart—a monoclonal antibody plasma kallikrein inhibitor targeting every 3- and 6-month dosing for HAE—became the company's primary Phase 3 pipeline asset.
Show full overview
Navenibart constitutes the critical pipeline binary event: it is currently in Phase 3 clinical development with FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations, and if trial results are negative or delayed the near-term pipeline would consist only of early-stage assets—Phase 1 BCX17725 for Netherton syndrome (up to 12-patient data expected by end of 2026) and Phase 1 Avoralstat for diabetic macular edema. STAR-0310, an OX40 antagonist acquired in the Astria merger, is in Phase 1a with the company planning to seek strategic alternatives for the asset, further concentrating the actionable pipeline around navenibart.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nasdaq, S&P 500 futures rise ahead of PMI data, Iran tensions cap risk appetite: Why NVDA, GME, AAOI, BCRX are keeping t — MSN neutral
- NEWS BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Why Did CRNX, D, BCRX Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs Today? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX): Why Is It in Focus After It received a pediatric approval in Japan for its hered — Kalkine Media positive
- NEWS 5/2 Stocks On Watch AUPH AXTI BCRX CBIO CCCR CGNT CIDM CMRE CYCC KITE KERX KTOS RGLS Kidderminster Harriers (RLTne2YcaV) — Mshale neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T19:02:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductORLADEYO10-K Item 1: 'We have built a robust commercial infrastructure to support the successful commercialization of ORLADEYO'
- MEDIUMpipelinenavenibart10-K Item 1: 'Navenibart is currently in Phase 3 clinical development, and the FDA has granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations to navenibart'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $9.99. A.R:R 11.4:1 at $9.99 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $18.11 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$8 per share to target. Key risk: Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Target $18.11 (+81.3%), stop $9.33 (−7.1%), A.R:R 11.4:1. Score 7.4/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.11 (+81.3% upside). Target $18.11 (+81.3%), stop $9.33 (−7.1%), A.R:R 11.4:1. Stop-loss: $9.33.
Elevated risk factors.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
17 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.
What does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary...
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales and royalties from partners including Torii (Japan); the company sold its European ORLADEYO business to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million in October 2025 and acquired Phase 3 navenibart via the Astria merger in January 2026.