Value
8.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BCRX · Why this verdict
Why BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak. | ||
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains. | ||
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations.
CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly.
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak.
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument.
CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates.
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position.
CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 34%, FCF yield 12.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 68 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 97%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $100,285 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 97%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAITPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.74
Upside
+71.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and value 8.8 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 4.74 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.8, and Sentiment at 8.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.74 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak High Magnitude
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 25x from the current 13.3 times as earnings estimates are revised downward.
- P3Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 30% level.
- P4Short Interest Binary Downside Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from the current 15%.