Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BCRX · Why this verdict
Why BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak. | ||
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains. | ||
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations.
CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly.
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak.
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument.
CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates.
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position.
CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 30%, FCF yield 10.9%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 124%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $696,535 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.4 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| beta | 9.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.21
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:9.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
8.96
Upside
+95.2%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 8.96.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.2, Peer rank at 3.7, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak High Magnitude
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 25x from the current 13.3 times as earnings estimates are revised downward.
- P3Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 30% level.
- P4Short Interest Binary Downside Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from the current 15%.