Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BCRX · Why this verdict
Why BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BioCryst combines 34% revenue growth, positive free cash flow and a perfect 4-quarter beat streak with a forward P/E of 10.3x and large analyst upside, though earnings are due in 3 days and the stock is below its long-term trend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 34% FCF margin, 15.0% FCF yield and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays above 25% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA GAAP operating margin of -29.2% and flagged value-trap signals suggest cash flow may reflect timing rather than durable profit. | ||
The company shows value-trap signals: operating margin of -29.2%, 15 insider sells equal to 1.36% of market cap and negative free cash flow. Bear case | Operating margin improves to above -10% and insider selling fades over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThese signals conflict with the reported positive FCF margin of 34%, so the data may lag the improving results. | ||
Revenue is growing 34% YoY, and the Rule of 40 score is an elite 68, making BioCryst an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy ($406.6M in Dec 2025 vs $156.4M in Mar 2026), so a single quarter can distort the growth rate. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of about 100%, including +49% in August 2026. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, starting with earnings in 3 days. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats are measured against very low estimates, and a single miss at a binary earnings event could hit a stock with 10% short interest. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.06, and the $17.87 analyst target is 111.0% above the $8.47 price. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $17.87 analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets this far above the price often reflect optimistic assumptions, and the price is below its 200-day average. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 34% FCF margin, 15.0% FCF yield and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays above 25% over 12 months.
CounterA GAAP operating margin of -29.2% and flagged value-trap signals suggest cash flow may reflect timing rather than durable profit.
The company shows value-trap signals: operating margin of -29.2%, 15 insider sells equal to 1.36% of market cap and negative free cash flow.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves to above -10% and insider selling fades over 12 months.
CounterThese signals conflict with the reported positive FCF margin of 34%, so the data may lag the improving results.
Revenue is growing 34% YoY, and the Rule of 40 score is an elite 68, making BioCryst an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy ($406.6M in Dec 2025 vs $156.4M in Mar 2026), so a single quarter can distort the growth rate.
EPS beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of about 100%, including +49% in August 2026.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, starting with earnings in 3 days.
CounterBeats are measured against very low estimates, and a single miss at a binary earnings event could hit a stock with 10% short interest.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.06, and the $17.87 analyst target is 111.0% above the $8.47 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $17.87 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets this far above the price often reflect optimistic assumptions, and the price is below its 200-day average.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 34%, FCF yield 15.4%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 68 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 144%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:10.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
10.57
Upside
+112.4%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (3.7)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 10.57.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Quality at 8.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Momentum at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 10.57 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Fcf Positive High Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 15% from the current 34%.
- P3Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Deep Value Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $7.65 stop level, a drop of more than 9% from $8.47.
- P5Margin Compression Insider Selling
Trip ifOperating margin falls below -40% from the current -29.2%.