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NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Buy Wait6.9·$156.42-1.94%
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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $156.42. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Negative momentum.

Neurocrine Biosciences discovers and commercializes treatments for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders, with INGREZZA (valbenazine) for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease chorea and CRENESSITY (crinecerfont) for classic congenital adrenal... Read more

$156.42+11.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.68%
Entry $148.02(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $137.38Target $173.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1Setup A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$192.88+23.3%29 analysts
$173.60our TP
$156.42price
$192.88mean
$144
$251

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $156.42. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

About Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

Neurocrine Biosciences reported $2.51 billion in INGREZZA (valbenazine) net product sales for 2025 and $301.2 million in CRENESSITY (crinecerfont) net product sales during its first full year post-December 2024 FDA approval, making the San Diego-based biopharmaceutical company two-product commercial. INGREZZA — the first FDA-approved treatment for tardive dyskinesia, approved May 2017, and also approved for Huntington's disease chorea in August 2023 — remains the primary revenue driver.

Neurocrine Biosciences earns revenue through U.S. prescription sales of INGREZZA distributed through a limited specialty network of select specialty pharmacy providers, wholesale distributors, and specialty distributors; CRENESSITY is sold exclusively through a single specialty pharmacy provider, consistent with its rare disease focus. A specialized sales force of approximately 600 professionals targets neurology, psychiatry, long-term care, and rare disease prescribers. Manufacturing is fully outsourced to third-party CMOs and API suppliers, with multiple manufacturers and long-term commercial supply agreements in place to support continued production. Royalties and collaboration revenues from elagolix (for endometriosis and uterine fibroids) flow through the collaboration with AbbVie, which retains global commercialization rights. INGREZZA faces competition from AUSTEDO (deutetrabenazine), marketed by Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries, while CRENESSITY competes primarily with high-dose corticosteroid monotherapy as the existing standard of care for CAH.

Show full overview

INGREZZA's commercial longevity is anchored by 22 FDA Orange Book-listed U.S. patents expiring between 2027 and 2040, with the core active pharmaceutical ingredient patent (U.S. Patent No. 8,039,627) extended to 2031 via patent term extension. Settlement agreements reached in 2023 with all ANDA filers grant generic entrants the right to launch generic valbenazine beginning March 1, 2038, or earlier under certain circumstances — establishing a defined exclusivity window. Pipeline programs osavampator (Phase 3 in MDD, initial topline data expected 2027) and direclidine (Phase 3 in schizophrenia, initial data also expected 2027) are intended to diversify the revenue base ahead of the 2038 generic entry date, though both face binary readout risk.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.57)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.5
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$16.0B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth42.2%
Beta0.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.52bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$145-7.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductINGREZZA
    10-K Item 1: 'INGREZZA net product sales were $2.51 billion for 2025... and accounted for a significant portion of our total net product sales during each of these years'
  • MEDIUMCustomerconcentrated customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our customers are concentrated and therefore the loss of a significant customer may harm our business'
  • LOWcounterpartysingle specialty pharmacy provider
    10-K Item 1: 'we sell CRENESSITY in the U.S. through a single specialty pharmacy provider'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved amendment of 2025 Equity Incentive Plan at May 27, 2026 Annual Meeting. Three Class III directors elected for terms expiring 2029. Ernst & Young LLP ratified as auditor for FY2026. No executive departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $152.54Resistance $169.57

Price Targets

$137
$148
$174
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $156.42. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $173.60 (+11.0%), stop $137.38 (−13.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $173.60 (+11.9% upside). Target $173.60 (+11.0%), stop $137.38 (−13.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $137.38.

What are the risks of investing in NBIX?

Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Negative momentum.

Is NBIX overvalued or undervalued?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NBIX?

36 analysts cover NBIX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $193.

What does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. do?Neurocrine Biosciences discovers and commercializes treatments for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and...

Neurocrine Biosciences discovers and commercializes treatments for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders, with INGREZZA (valbenazine) for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease chorea and CRENESSITY (crinecerfont) for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia as its two FDA-approved commercial products. INGREZZA generated $2.51 billion in net product sales in 2025; CRENESSITY generated $301.2 million in its first full year following December 2024 FDA approval.

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