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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Wait for pullback to $148.02. At $154.14 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $148.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA) and classic CAH (CRENESSITY), plus a diversified mid-to-late stage pipeline. INGREZZA generated $2.51B in 2025 net product... Read more

$154.14+14.0% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.80%
Entry $148.02(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $138.47Target $171.89(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$190.99+23.9%27 analysts
$171.89our TP
$154.14price
$190.99mean
$251

Wait for pullback to $148.02. At $154.14 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $148.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.8Qual8.7Grw10.0Mom4.8Sent8.2Ins5.0Peer5.0Tech4.6Risk7.47.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)
Overbought (RSI 79)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth42.2%
Beta0.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$210+36.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductINGREZZA
    10-K Item 1: 'INGREZZA net product sales were $2.51 billion for 2025 ... and accounted for a significant portion of our total net product sales during each of these years.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
79 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $126.48Resistance $162.39

Price Targets

$138
$148
$172
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $148.02. At $154.14 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $148.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $171.89 (+11.5%), stop $138.47 (−11.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

What is the NBIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $171.89 (+14.0% upside). Target $171.89 (+11.5%), stop $138.47 (−11.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $138.47.

What are the risks of investing in NBIX?

Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Overbought (RSI 79).

Is NBIX overvalued or undervalued?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NBIX?

35 analysts cover NBIX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $191.

What does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. do?Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia...

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA) and classic CAH (CRENESSITY), plus a diversified mid-to-late stage pipeline. INGREZZA generated $2.51B in 2025 net product sales, representing a significant portion of total revenues; CRENESSITY contributed $301.2M in its first full launch year.

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