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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA, $2.51B net sales in 2025), classic CAH (CRENESSITY, $301.2M in first full year 2025), and endometriosis/uterine fibroids (elagolix,... Read more

$132.65+27.3% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Stop $124.01Target $167.09(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.0:1
Analyst target$185.65+40.0%27 analysts
$167.09our TP
$132.65price
$185.65mean
$251

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is outpacing valuation and the chart agrees (PEG 0.42, quality 7.7/10, growth 9.8/10). | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.1
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$13.2B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn16.7%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth28.3%
Beta0.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$210+58.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductINGREZZA
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to produce INGREZZA revenues consistent with expectations ultimately depends on our ability to continue to successfully commercialize INGREZZA'
  • MEDIUMCustomerconcentrated customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our customers are concentrated and therefore the loss of a significant customer may harm our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 5 days
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 5.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $125.31Resistance $134.20

Price Targets

$124
$167
A.Upside+26.0%
A.R:R5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is outpacing valuation and the chart agrees (PEG 0.42, quality 7.7/10, growth 9.8/10). | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $167.09 (+26.0%), stop $124.01 (−7.0%), A.R:R 5.0:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $167.09 (+27.3% upside). Target $167.09 (+26.0%), stop $124.01 (−7.0%), A.R:R 5.0:1. Stop-loss: $124.01.

What are the risks of investing in NBIX?

Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NBIX overvalued or undervalued?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.1 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBIX?

36 analysts cover NBIX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $186.

What does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. do?Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and...

Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA, $2.51B net sales in 2025), classic CAH (CRENESSITY, $301.2M in first full year 2025), and endometriosis/uterine fibroids (elagolix, via AbbVie). INGREZZA represents a significant portion of total net product sales.

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