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IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Buy Now7.4·$4.09-5.32%
Buy NowModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ironwood screens as a statistically cheap, high-quality growth business with elite margins and positive technical momentum, but the engine's own risk/reward gate and bearish insider/short-interest signals argue for a smaller starter position until the asymmetry improves.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Margin ProfileImproving
  • Deep Value MispricingImproving
  • Technical Momentum Above 200dmaImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy Now (conditional)ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Conditional: analysts disagree (2.7× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Buy now at $4.09. A.R:R 1.8:1 at $4.09 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $5.18 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$1 per share to target.

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies for gastrointestinal (GI) and rare diseases in the United States and internationally. It sells linaclotide, a guanylate cyclase type-C (GC-C) agonist for the... Read more

QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield17.07%
Entry $4.11(at market)Stop $3.82Target $5.18(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$6.10+49.1%4 analysts
$5.18our TP
$4.09price
$6.10mean
$10

Buy now at $4.09. A.R:R 1.8:1 at $4.09 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $5.18 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$1 per share to target. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Value play: 64% MoS with quality 8.9. Score 7.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=healthcare 4/10 self excluded). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.4/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)2.9
Mkt Cap$714M
EV/EBITDA4.3
Profit Mgn33.4%
ROE
Rev Growth32.6%
Beta0.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV72%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
5.6
GatesMomentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Healthcare 4/10 self excludedBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.55Resistance $4.59

Price Targets

$4
$4
$5
A.Upside+26.3%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %4.4%
Max %8.9%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts10
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$6

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IRWD stock a buy right now?

Buy now at $4.09. A.R:R 1.8:1 at $4.09 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $5.18 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$1 per share to target. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Value play: 64% MoS with quality 8.9. Target $5.18 (+26.7%), stop $3.82 (−7.1%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 7.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IRWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.18 (+26.3% upside). Target $5.18 (+26.7%), stop $3.82 (−7.1%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $3.82.

Is IRWD overvalued or undervalued?

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 2.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.

What do analysts say about IRWD?

10 analysts cover IRWD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies...

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies for gastrointestinal (GI) and rare diseases in the United States and internationally. It sells linaclotide, a guanylate cyclase type-C (GC-C) agonist for the treatment of adults suffering from irritable bowel syndrome with constipation or chronic idiopathic constipation, as well as for pediatric patients suffering from functional constipation under the LINZESS and CONSTELLA names. The company is also developing IW-3300, a GC-C agonist for the treatment of visceral pain conditions, including interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome and endometriosis; and Apraglutide, a synthetic peptide long-acting analog of glucagon-like peptide-2 for short bowel syndrome patients dependent on parenteral support, as well as for acute graft versus host disease. It has strategic partnerships with AbbVie Inc., AstraZeneca AB, and Astellas Pharma Inc. for the development and commercialization of linaclotide. The company was formerly known as Microbia, Inc. and changed its name to Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in April 2008. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

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