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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.18. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3.

BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while developing navenibart (Phase 3 injectable HAE) acquired via the January 2026 Astria Therapeutics merger. Revenue is driven by ORLADEYO with the company estimating... Read more

$9.18+107.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Entry $8.18(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $7.46Target $18.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 13.2:1Setup A.R:R 15.4:1
Analyst target$21.40+133.1%10 analysts
$18.62our TP
$9.18price
$21.40mean
$32

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.18. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.8 < 4.5 minimum; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.8Qual8.7Grw5.0Mom2.8Sent7.9Ins3.9Peer7.6Tech5.8Risk3.16.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO
Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE—
Rev Growth209.1%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C2.31bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$1-89.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductORLADEYO
    10-K Item 1: 'We have built a robust commercial infrastructure to support the successful commercialization of ORLADEYO...our business strategy includes leveraging this established commercial platform'
  • HIGHpipelinenavenibart Phase 3
    10-K Item 1: 'Navenibart is currently in Phase 3 clinical development, and the FDA has granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations to navenibart for the treatment of HAE'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.6
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 13.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.56Resistance $9.98

Price Targets

$7
$8
$19
A.Upside+102.8%
A.R:R13.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)15.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %3.4%
Max %6.7%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 2.8 < 4.5 minimum
! Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCRX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.18. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.8 < 4.5 minimum; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $18.62 (+102.8%), stop $7.46 (−23.1%), Setup A.R:R 15.4:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCRX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.62 (+107.8% upside). Target $18.62 (+102.8%), stop $7.46 (−23.1%), Setup A.R:R 15.4:1. Stop-loss: $7.46.

What are the risks of investing in BCRX?

Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is BCRX overvalued or undervalued?

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BCRX?

16 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $21.

What does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while...

BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while developing navenibart (Phase 3 injectable HAE) acquired via the January 2026 Astria Therapeutics merger. Revenue is driven by ORLADEYO with the company estimating peak global sales potential of $1 billion annually.

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