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BCHBanco De ChileSell5.3·$40.69+0.35%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Banco De Chile has reached its price target with no remaining upside, has missed earnings estimates in all four trailing quarters, and carries quality metrics below the minimum floor alongside an 8% revenue decline; strong near-term price momentum provides a temporary technical tailwind but the fundamental and valuation picture does not support a constructive position.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Quarter Earnings Miss StreakDeteriorating
  • Price At Target Negative AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • Below Floor Quality Weak PiotroskiStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco De Chile (BCH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.69 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Banco de Chile, together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services in Chile. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Treasury, and Subsidiaries. The company offers current account and digital student plans; digital and checking... Read more

$40.69-15.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#193 of 224 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.38%(5y avg 6.94%)Payout85.32%at-risk
Stop $38.45Target $41.83(resistance)A.R:R -2.8:1
Analyst target$39.55-2.8%12 analysts
$41.83our TP
$40.69price
$39.55mean
$21
$47

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.69 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$20.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn45.4%
ROE21.6%
Rev Growth13.6%
Beta0.07
Dividend5.38%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$45+10.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.3
Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Surprise Avg
3.9
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -2.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.60Resistance $42.68

Price Targets

$38
$42
A.Upside-15.4%
A.R:R-2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.4% upside)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.69 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $38.45. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.83 (-15.4% upside). Prior stop was $38.45. Stop-loss: $38.45.

What are the risks of investing in BCH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is BCH overvalued or undervalued?

Banco De Chile trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BCH?

18 analysts cover BCH with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Banco De Chile do?Banco de Chile, together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services in Chile. It operates through four...

Banco de Chile, together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services in Chile. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Treasury, and Subsidiaries. The company offers current account and digital student plans; digital and checking accounts; mortgage loans; credit and debit cards; consumer credit; applications; deposits and savings; financing; autoleasing; online payments; cell phone top-ups; foreign currency; and income accreditation. It also provides insurance products, including journey, health, protection, home, life, and automotive; and investments, such as mutual, investment, and APV funds, stocks, fixed income, and derivative products. In addition, the company offers cash management comprising mass and easy payments, collection, and fund transfers; foreign trade, which includes imports, exports, international network products, Banchile international transport insurance, and customs guarantee insurance; and other services, such as bank connection, financial portability, digital VAT and signature, financial advice, and SME program. It serves individuals, private entities, companies, and small and medium-sized enterprises. The company was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

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