Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs.
Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits, operating Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking segments. It earns revenue by originating and selling government-agency mortgage loans... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierFannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs10-K Item 1A: 'our ability to sell mortgage loans readily is dependent upon our ability to remain eligible for the programs offered by the agency, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $42.75. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.25 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $42.75. Stop-loss: $42.75.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Merchants Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover MBIN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $51.
What does Merchants Bancorp do?Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits,...
Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits, operating Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking segments. It earns revenue by originating and selling government-agency mortgage loans (FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), warehouse lending fees, tax credit syndication income, and traditional community banking.