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Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with three segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking, operating with $19.4 billion in assets. It originates and services government-agency multifamily and residential loans... Read more

$44.67+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#83 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.91%(5y avg 0.98%)Payout10.00%sustainable
Stop $42.86Target $49.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$51.67+15.7%3 analysts
$49.20our TP
$44.67price
$51.67mean
$58

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Merchants Bancorp

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn39.0%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

IV65%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.19Resistance $50.20

Price Targets

$43
$49
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.7% upside)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MBIN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $49.20 (+10.1%), stop $42.86 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MBIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.20 (+10.1% upside). Target $49.20 (+10.1%), stop $42.86 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $42.86.

What are the risks of investing in MBIN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum.

Is MBIN overvalued or undervalued?

Merchants Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MBIN?

9 analysts cover MBIN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Merchants Bancorp do?Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with three segments: Multi-family Mortgage...

Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with three segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking, operating with $19.4 billion in assets. It originates and services government-agency multifamily and residential loans nationally and is one of the largest warehouse lenders in the country, funding $66.3 billion of loan principal in 2025.

Related stocks: IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.) · INDB (Independent Bank Corp.)