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Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs.

Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits, operating Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking segments. It earns revenue by originating and selling government-agency mortgage loans... Read more

$45.85+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#114 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $42.75Target $49.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$51.00+11.2%3 analysts
$49.25our TP
$45.85price
$51.00mean
$58

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.8%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth-17.6%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$30-34.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierFannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs
    10-K Item 1A: 'our ability to sell mortgage loans readily is dependent upon our ability to remain eligible for the programs offered by the agency, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.30Resistance $50.26

Price Targets

$43
$49
A.Upside+7.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MBIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.85 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $42.75. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MBIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.25 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $42.75. Stop-loss: $42.75.

What are the risks of investing in MBIN?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae programs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is MBIN overvalued or undervalued?

Merchants Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MBIN?

9 analysts cover MBIN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Merchants Bancorp do?Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits,...

Merchants Bancorp is an Indiana-based diversified bank holding company with $19.4B in assets and $13.0B in deposits, operating Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking segments. It earns revenue by originating and selling government-agency mortgage loans (FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), warehouse lending fees, tax credit syndication income, and traditional community banking.

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