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MFGMizuho Financial Group, Inc. SpHold6.1·$9.56-0.31%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mizuho has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 29% above consensus, institutional investors are accumulating shares, and the earnings multiple remains cheap at 7.0x forward, but the stock has moved fractionally past its technical price target and the unfavorable risk/reward argues for holding existing positions rather than initiating or adding at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Quarter Beat StreakStable
  • Institutional Accumulation SignalStable
  • Inexpensive Forward MultipleStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp (MFG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. The company offers finance solutions, including... Read more

$9.56+4.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#61 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.89%(5y avg 3.93%)Payout28.14%sustainable
Stop $9.19Target $10.18(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$9.85+3.1%2 analysts
$10.18our TP
$9.56price
$9.85mean
$9
$11

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$118.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.4%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta0.39
Dividend1.89%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$3-73.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.95Resistance $10.39

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $10.18 (+6.5%), stop $9.19 (−4.0%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.18 (+4.8% upside). Target $10.18 (+6.5%), stop $9.19 (−4.0%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $9.19.

What are the risks of investing in MFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is MFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MFG?

18 analysts cover MFG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp do?Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other...

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. The company offers finance solutions, including corporate, syndicated, acquisition, real estate, project, ECA, and other structured finance solutions; financing and advisory solutions for capital markets comprising debt, loan, and equity capital markets; corporate finance advisory services; treasury solutions that include deposit, cash management, and trade finance; and market solutions for foreign exchange, derivatives, futures, equities, and fixed income. It also provides asset management services; research services, such as industry, macroeconomic, equity, and fixed income research; and institutional services, including markets, JPY clearing, custody, fund administration, and securities lending services. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Related stocks: PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In) · CFG (Citizens Financial Group, Inc.) · NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.) · BAP (Credicorp Ltd.) · FHN (First Horizon Corporation)
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