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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp (MFG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Retail & Business Banking... Read more

$8.89+8.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#39 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.26%(5y avg 3.97%)Payout13.77%sustainable
Entry $8.13(support + ATR)Stop $7.79Target $8.80(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$9.85+10.8%2 analysts
$8.80our TP
$8.89price
$9.85mean
$11

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $8.89 has reached target $8.80. No upside to wait for. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$106.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.4%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta0.40
Dividend2.26%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV100%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.3
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.03Resistance $8.98

Price Targets

$8
$8
$9
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $8.89 has reached target $8.80. No upside to wait for. Target $8.80 (-1.0%), stop $7.79 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.80 (+8.2% upside). Target $8.80 (-1.0%), stop $7.79 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $7.79.

What are the risks of investing in MFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Is MFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MFG?

19 analysts cover MFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp do?Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other...

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Retail & Business Banking Company; Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Markets Company; Asset Management Company; and Others segments. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; management of retirement payments; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers fund management, underwriting of equity and bonds, risk hedging products; solutions on capital management, business and financial strategy; real estate services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on financial strategy and proposals on investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers corporate finance and transaction banking services; sales and trading services; investment products; pension funds; and ALM and investment services, including stable capital raising and balance sheet management, as well as management of fixed income, equity, and other securities portfolios. Additionally, it provides online banking, cash management solutions, currency transaction, trade finance, custody, yen correspondence settlement, and research and consulting services; trust, securitization and structured finance, and stock transfer agency; and private banking and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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