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Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo (AUB) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans; Thin upside margin: 4.7%.

Atlantic Union Bankshares is a Virginia-based financial holding company operating Atlantic Union Bank with $37.6 billion in assets at December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and equipment finance across Virginia, Maryland, Washington... Read more

$36.67+4.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#10 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.94%(5y avg 3.57%)Payout60.68%
Stop $34.87Target $38.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$44.13+20.3%8 analysts
$38.39our TP
$36.67price
$44.13mean
$46

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans; Thin upside margin: 4.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans
Thin upside margin: 4.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.7%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth86.2%
Beta0.80
Dividend3.94%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicVirginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., North Carolina
    10-K Item 1A: 'we are a regional bank that focuses on providing banking and financial services to customers primarily in Virginia, Maryland, Washington, D.C., North Carolina, and South Carolina'
  • HIGHloan_portfolioCRE loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have significant credit exposure in CRE, which may expose us to additional credit risks, and may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioreal estate secured loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by real estate located in our core banking markets.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Alexander D. Dodd appointed EVP and CFO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Robert M. Gorman who retires from CFO role on that date. Gorman to continue as EVP Senior Financial Advisor through September 30, 2026, then as non-employee consultant through September 30, 2027.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.6
Volume
2.5
Obv
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.94Resistance $38.96

Price Targets

$35
$38
A.Upside+4.7%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans; Thin upside margin: 4.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $38.39 (+4.7%), stop $34.87 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.39 (+4.7% upside). Target $38.39 (+4.7%), stop $34.87 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $34.87.

What are the risks of investing in AUB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans; Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is AUB overvalued or undervalued?

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AUB?

13 analysts cover AUB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo do?Atlantic Union Bankshares is a Virginia-based financial holding company operating Atlantic Union Bank with $37.6...

Atlantic Union Bankshares is a Virginia-based financial holding company operating Atlantic Union Bank with $37.6 billion in assets at December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and equipment finance across Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., and North Carolina. The 2025 acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp significantly expanded its mid-Atlantic footprint.

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