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Renasant Corporation (RNST) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. At $40.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate collateral (84.6%).

Renasant Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company operating Renasant Bank throughout the Southeast with 277 banking and mortgage offices. After merging with The First Bancshares (effective April 2025), it operates Community Banks and Wealth Management segments. Income... Read more

$40.30-0.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#49 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $38.53Target $40.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$44.29+9.9%7 analysts
$40.24our TP
$40.30price
$44.29mean
$46

Sell if holding. At $40.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate collateral (84.6%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%)
Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate collateral (84.6%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth60.2%
Beta
Dividend2.41%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$35-13.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantC&I, construction and commercial real estate loans75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75.10% of our loan portfolio consisted of C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans'
  • HIGHTenantreal estate collateral85%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 84.64% of our loan portfolio had real estate as a primary or secondary component of the collateral securing the loan'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment to M. Ray (Hoppy) Cole Jr.'s employment agreement adjusting bonus plan structure and calendar-year alignment effective March 11, 2026. No departure; compensatory arrangement modification for existing officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.80Resistance $41.06

Price Targets

$39
$40
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RNST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $40.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate collateral (84.6%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $38.53. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RNST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.24 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $38.53. Stop-loss: $38.53.

What are the risks of investing in RNST?

Concentration risk — Tenant: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate collateral (84.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is RNST overvalued or undervalued?

Renasant Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RNST?

13 analysts cover RNST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Renasant Corporation do?Renasant Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company operating Renasant Bank throughout the Southeast with 277...

Renasant Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company operating Renasant Bank throughout the Southeast with 277 banking and mortgage offices. After merging with The First Bancshares (effective April 2025), it operates Community Banks and Wealth Management segments. Income comes from net interest income and fee-based services.

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