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FB Financial Corporation (FBK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $50.77. At $54.12 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $50.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee; Concentration risk — Product: real estate loans (77.0%).

FB Financial Corporation is the bank holding company for FirstBank, operating 90 branches primarily in Tennessee with expanding presence in Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina. At Dec 31, 2025, total assets were 16.3B and total deposits were 13.91B.

$54.12+6.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#37 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $50.77(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $47.87Target $56.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$64.43+19.0%7 analysts
$56.05our TP
$54.12price
$64.43mean
$67

Wait for pullback to $50.77. At $54.12 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $50.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee; Concentration risk — Product: real estate loans (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.4Qual5.1Grw9.1Mom4.5Sent7.5Ins5.0Peer4.2Tech6.3Risk4.86.2OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee
Concentration risk — Product: real estate loans (77.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth31.9%
Beta0.98
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$45-16.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our loans ... were made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Tennessee'
  • HIGHProductreal estate loans77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-03Item 5.02LOW
    Jonathan Pennington resigned as Chief Accounting Officer of FB Financial and FirstBank effective ~Feb 26, 2026, to take a role at another institution. Lynn Joyce named successor CAO effective ~March 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.27Resistance $56.77

Price Targets

$48
$51
$56
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-13 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $50.77. At $54.12 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $50.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee; Concentration risk — Product: real estate loans (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $56.05 (+3.6%), stop $47.87 (−13.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.05 (+6.4% upside). Target $56.05 (+3.6%), stop $47.87 (−13.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $47.87.

What are the risks of investing in FBK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee; Concentration risk — Product: real estate loans (77.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

Is FBK overvalued or undervalued?

FB Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FBK?

11 analysts cover FBK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $64.

What does FB Financial Corporation do?FB Financial Corporation is the bank holding company for FirstBank, operating 90 branches primarily in Tennessee with...

FB Financial Corporation is the bank holding company for FirstBank, operating 90 branches primarily in Tennessee with expanding presence in Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina. At Dec 31, 2025, total assets were 16.3B and total deposits were 13.91B.

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