FB Financial Corporation (FBK) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%).
FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — FB Financial Corporation
Latest news
- Exploring analyst estimates for FB Financial (FBK) Q1 earnings, beyond revenue and EPS - MSN — MSN neutral
- FB Financial Corp (FBK) Stock Price, Trades & News - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- FB Financial Highlights Non-GAAP Metrics, Customer Satisfaction Strength - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- Net revenue after provisions of FB Financial Corporation – NYSE:FBK - TradingView — Track All Markets — TradingView — Track All Markets neutral
- Net revenue after provisions of FB Financial Corporation – NYSE:FBK - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicTennessee62%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our loans and approximately 62% of our deposits were made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Tennessee.'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate40%10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate (both owner-occupied and non-owner occupied) - 40%; commercial and industrial - 18%; and construction - 10%.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $56.05 (+8.8%), stop $49.51 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $56.05 (+9.2% upside). Target $56.05 (+8.8%), stop $49.51 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $49.51.
Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%.
FB Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover FBK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $64.
What does FB Financial Corporation do?FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets,...
FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and noninterest income; Tennessee accounts for ~62% of deposits and ~55% of loans.