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FB Financial Corporation (FBK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%).

FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and... Read more

$51.50+9.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#32 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.63%(5y avg 1.41%)Payout28.78%sustainable
Entry $51.58(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $49.51Target $56.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$64.43+25.1%7 analysts
$56.05our TP
$51.50price
$64.43mean
$67

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — FB Financial Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.8%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth31.9%
Beta0.97
Dividend1.63%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$50-2.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTennessee62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our loans and approximately 62% of our deposits were made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Tennessee.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate (both owner-occupied and non-owner occupied) - 40%; commercial and industrial - 18%; and construction - 10%.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5FINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.80Resistance $55.61

Price Targets

$50
$52
$56
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-13 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBK stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $51.58 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $56.05 (+8.8%), stop $49.51 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.05 (+9.2% upside). Target $56.05 (+8.8%), stop $49.51 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $49.51.

What are the risks of investing in FBK?

Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%.

Is FBK overvalued or undervalued?

FB Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FBK?

11 analysts cover FBK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $64.

What does FB Financial Corporation do?FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets,...

FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and noninterest income; Tennessee accounts for ~62% of deposits and ~55% of loans.

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