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ATSATS CorporationSell4.3·$20.31+0.89%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ATS Corporation's exceptional free cash flow conversion and industry-leading growth position it attractively on a valuation basis, but inconsistent earnings delivery and a failed momentum threshold create near-term uncertainty about whether the fundamental strength will translate into price appreciation.

Thesis pillars

  • Industry Growth LeadershipStable
  • Excellent Cash Conversion QualityImproving
  • Earnings Delivery InconsistencyDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ATS Corporation (ATS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.3/10.

ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the planning, designing, building, commissioning, and servicing of automated manufacturing and assembly systems worldwide. The company offers pre-automation services comprising discovery and analysis, concept... Read more

$20.31+38.4% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#55 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.99%
Stop $18.89Target $28.10(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.3/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.3/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.0
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn1.6%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth-5.8%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV81%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.1
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
5.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.14Resistance $28.67

Price Targets

$19
$28
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.3/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $18.89. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.10 (+38.4% upside). Prior stop was $18.89. Stop-loss: $18.89.

What are the risks of investing in ATS?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.3/10; Weak growth.

Is ATS overvalued or undervalued?

ATS Corporation trades at a P/E of 58.0 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATS?

12 analysts cover ATS with a consensus score of 3.9/5.

What does ATS Corporation do?ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the planning, designing, building, commissioning, and...

ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the planning, designing, building, commissioning, and servicing of automated manufacturing and assembly systems worldwide. The company offers pre-automation services comprising discovery and analysis, concept development, simulation, and total cost of ownership modeling; post-automation services, including training, process optimization, preventive maintenance, emergency and on-call support, spare parts, retooling, retrofits, and equipment relocation; and contract manufacturing services, as well as after-sales services. It also provides engineering design, prototyping, process verification, specification writing, software and manufacturing process controls development, standard automation products and platforms, equipment design and build, third-party equipment qualification, procurement and integration, automation system installation, product line commissioning, validation, and documentation services. In addition, the company offers value engineering, supply chain management, and integration and manufacturing capabilities, as well as other automation products and solutions; and software and digital solutions comprising connected factory floor management systems to capture, analyze, and use real-time machine performance data to troubleshoot issues, deliver process and product solutions, prevent equipment downtime, drive operational efficiency, and unlock performance for sustainable production improvements. It serves the life sciences, transportation and mobility, consumer products, food and beverage, electronics, nuclear, packaging, warehousing and distribution, and energy markets. The company was formerly known as ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. and changed its name to ATS Corporation in November 2022. ATS Corporation was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Canada.

Related stocks: EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · CXT (Crane NXT, Co.) · MFP (Midera Food Processing, Inc.) · GTES (Gates Industrial Corporation Lt)
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