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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering systems, and leak detection — for North American utilities and construction markets through Water Flow Solutions (58% of revenues) and Water Management Solutions... Read more

$25.00+12.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#13 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.54%
IncomeYield1.11%(5y avg 1.48%)Payout20.76%sustainable
Stop $24.23Target $28.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$32.20+28.8%5 analysts
$28.01our TP
$25.00price
$32.20mean
$35

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.7Qual6.8Grw4.5Mom2.5Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer4.6Tech8.4Risk6.75.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn14.2%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.11%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$23-10.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 2 distributors37%
    10-K Item 1: 'our two largest distributors, which together accounted for approximately 37%, 38% and 35% of our gross sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023 fiscal years, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Scott Floyd appointed EVP and Chief Commercial Officer effective February 23, 2026. Internal promotion from SVP Sales and Marketing; no departure of an existing officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Volume
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
5.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.98Resistance $28.42

Price Targets

$24
$28
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MWA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $24.23. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MWA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.01 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $24.23. Stop-loss: $24.23.

What are the risks of investing in MWA?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is MWA overvalued or undervalued?

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MWA?

9 analysts cover MWA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $32.

What does MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS do?Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering...

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering systems, and leak detection — for North American utilities and construction markets through Water Flow Solutions (58% of revenues) and Water Management Solutions (42%). Consolidated net sales were $1,429.7M in 2025, sold primarily through waterworks distributors.

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