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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products—iron gate valves, fire hydrants, specialty valves, metering, and leak detection—for municipalities and construction markets in North America, generating $1,429.7 million in net sales in 2025. Products... Read more

$27.62+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Stop $26.37Target $30.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$31.60+14.4%5 analysts
$30.13our TP
$27.62price
$31.60mean
$35

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8
P/E (Fwd)17.8
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE21.6%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$18-36.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle-source or limited-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our reliance on vendors for certain products, some of which are single-source or limited-source suppliers, could harm our business by adversely affecting product availability, reliability or cost.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Scott Floyd appointed as EVP and Chief Commercial Officer of Mueller Water Products effective February 23, 2026, promoted from SVP Sales and Marketing. Described as management succession plan; no predecessor departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $27.19Resistance $30.75

Price Targets

$26
$30
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MWA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.13 (+9.1%), stop $26.37 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MWA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.13 (+9.1% upside). Target $30.13 (+9.1%), stop $26.37 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $26.37.

What are the risks of investing in MWA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is MWA overvalued or undervalued?

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MWA?

10 analysts cover MWA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $32.

What does MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS do?Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products—iron gate valves, fire hydrants,...

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products—iron gate valves, fire hydrants, specialty valves, metering, and leak detection—for municipalities and construction markets in North America, generating $1,429.7 million in net sales in 2025. Products are sold primarily through distributors.

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