Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
ATS · Why this verdict
Why ATS (ATS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ATS Corporation is cheaply valued (forward P/E 13.3x) with excellent cash conversion, but quality sits at the 4.0 floor, revenue is declining 6%, recent earnings missed twice and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with earnings 3 days away.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.05. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining 6%, so a low PEG based on earnings growth may not be sustainable and the multiple may be cheap for a reason. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 412% free cash flow to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margins are thin (0.8 on the scoring scale) and a no-moat profile means high cash conversion could reflect working-capital release rather than durable economics. | ||
Revenue is declining 6% and the peer growth rank is only 0.38 out of 10, even though earnings growth scores 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth despite falling sales shows cost discipline, and a recovering order book could lift revenue. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including 0.25 versus 0.30 expected in August 2026, for an average surprise of -5.1%. Miss count | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-04 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTwo earlier quarters beat, and the stock is already 49% below its 52-week high, so expectations may be reset low. | ||
Momentum is weak at 4.3, with price below the 200-day average, a -5.0% per 30-day slope and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is near 62, which suggests a possible recovery from a deeply discounted level. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.05.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings growth continues.
CounterRevenue is declining 6%, so a low PEG based on earnings growth may not be sustainable and the multiple may be cheap for a reason.
Cash conversion is excellent at 412% free cash flow to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterNet margins are thin (0.8 on the scoring scale) and a no-moat profile means high cash conversion could reflect working-capital release rather than durable economics.
Revenue is declining 6% and the peer growth rank is only 0.38 out of 10, even though earnings growth scores 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive within 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth despite falling sales shows cost discipline, and a recovering order book could lift revenue.
EPS missed estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including 0.25 versus 0.30 expected in August 2026, for an average surprise of -5.1%.
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterTwo earlier quarters beat, and the stock is already 49% below its 52-week high, so expectations may be reset low.
Momentum is weak at 4.3, with price below the 200-day average, a -5.0% per 30-day slope and falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is near 62, which suggests a possible recovery from a deeply discounted level.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 412% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 5.8, and Technical at 5.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.3, Momentum at 2.9, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x from the current 13.3x.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 412%.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 10% YoY from the current -6%.
- P4Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below the $17.31 stop level from the current $18.39.