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ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.Sell4.3·$5.58-5.90%
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Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.58: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality.

Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials primarily for use in the energy industrial, sustainable insulation materials, and electric vehicle (EV) markets in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Latin... Read more

$5.58+14.3% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#24 of 26 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield8.68%
Stop $5.19Target $6.38(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$6.35+13.8%5 analysts
$6.38our TP
$5.58price
$6.35mean
$4
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.58: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-1.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-53.5
Mkt Cap$462M
EV/EBITDA-17.2
Profit Mgn-48.6%
ROE-42.4%
Rev Growth-51.9%
Beta2.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV114%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.8

Unprofitable operations — net margin -48.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.3
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
9.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.16Resistance $6.51

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASPN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.58: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.19. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASPN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.38 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.19. Stop-loss: $5.19.

What are the risks of investing in ASPN?

Target reached (-1.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is ASPN overvalued or undervalued?

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -53.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASPN?

12 analysts cover ASPN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Aspen Aerogels, Inc. do?Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials...

Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials primarily for use in the energy industrial, sustainable insulation materials, and electric vehicle (EV) markets in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. It operates through two segments: Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial. The company offers PyroThin aerogel thermal barriers for use in battery packs in EVs; Pyrogel XTE for refineries and petrochemical facilities; Pyrogel HPS for high temperatures and in demanding thermal applications in refining and chemical processing systems; Pyrogel XTF for protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications; Spaceloft Subsea for pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production; and Cryogel X201 for cold system designs. It serves EV manufacturers, automotive suppliers, lithium-ion battery manufacturers, and e-mobility and energy storage companies. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

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