Aspen Aerogels combines declining revenue, weak business quality, repeated earnings misses and a very large insider sale with a 22.1% analyst-target upside. The risks outweigh the upside, so it is a speculative position to avoid for now.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Target Upside→Stable
- Extreme Insider Selling↑Improving
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 13, 2026
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.16: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Aspen Aerogels designs, develops, and manufactures aerogel insulation materials across two segments: Thermal Barrier (PyroThin products for EV battery packs, sold primarily to General Motors) and Energy Industrial (Pyrogel and Cryogel insulation for oil, gas, and petrochemical... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.16: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.
About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
Aspen Aerogels' revenue fell to $271.1 million in 2025 from $452.7 million in 2024 after General Motors, its largest thermal-barrier customer, reduced demand for the company's PyroThin EV battery aerogel products, which still generated $168.9 million of 2025 sales. The company operates two segments, Thermal Barrier (EV lithium-ion battery protection) and Energy Industrial (Pyrogel and Cryogel insulation for refineries and LNG facilities), with U.S. shipments representing $172.1 million of the total.
Aspen Aerogels sells PyroThin thermal barriers to automotive OEMs, including GM, Toyota, Scania, Automotive Cells Company, Audi, and Volvo Truck, under multi-year production contracts running from 2030 through 2034 that specify fixed prices and maximum daily volumes but carry no minimum purchase commitments and permit unilateral termination by the customer. Energy Industrial insulation is sold through a direct sales force and a network of distributors and contractors in more than 50 countries to customers such as ExxonMobil, Reliance Industries, PTT LNG, and Royal Dutch Shell for use in refineries, petrochemical plants, and LNG facilities, a business the company says is less exposed to economic cycles because much of its demand comes from non-discretionary maintenance rather than new capital projects. Manufacturing is concentrated at a single facility in East Providence, Rhode Island, supplemented by contract manufacturing in China for Energy Industrial products and a Mexico facility, OPE, that fabricates PyroThin parts, all financed in part through an amended MidCap Loan Facility maturing August 2029 with liquidity and EBITDA covenants.
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Aspen's PyroThin franchise carries concentrated, contractually unprotected customer risk: GM accounted for the large majority of the segment's $168.9 million of 2025 sales, yet the GM Contracts obligate GM to no minimum purchase volume and let GM terminate at any time for any reason, a structure that materialized into an actual revenue hit when GM reduced its aerogel demand during 2025, contributing to total revenue falling 40% year over year. Because Aspen must still supply Barriers up to a daily maximum quantity and has already sunk capital into capacity built for GM's originally projected volumes, a further pullback from GM, or a failure of newer OEM relationships with Toyota, ACC, Audi, and Volvo Truck to scale, would leave underutilized capacity weighing on margins.
See also: Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
From Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Aspen Aerogels Files Prospectus For Offering $150M Mixed Shelf — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aspen Aerogels Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 5, 2026
- NEWS Aspen Aerogels Appoints Stacy Nieuwoudt to Board of Directors — fiscal.ai Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Aspen Aerogels Q3 Adj. EPS $0.11 Beats $(0.08) Estimate, Sales $85.178M Beat $72.142M Estimate — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-06T12:03:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGM10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, 2024 and 2023, we sold $168.9 million, $306.8 million and $110.1 million, respectively, of our PyroThin thermal barriers, primarily to GM.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWOn May 13, 2026, the Board designated CFO Grant Thoele as principal accounting officer in addition to his existing roles, succeeding Santhosh P. Daniel in that function; routine internal reassignment, no dispute cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -36.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.16: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.80. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $6.74 (+30.7% upside). Prior stop was $4.80. Stop-loss: $4.80.
Concentration risk — Customer: GM; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -33.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate ASPN, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $8.
What does Aspen Aerogels, Inc. do?Aspen Aerogels designs, develops, and manufactures aerogel insulation materials across two segments: Thermal Barrier...
Aspen Aerogels designs, develops, and manufactures aerogel insulation materials across two segments: Thermal Barrier (PyroThin products for EV battery packs, sold primarily to General Motors) and Energy Industrial (Pyrogel and Cryogel insulation for oil, gas, and petrochemical facilities). Total revenue fell to $271.1 million in 2025 from $452.7 million in 2024 after GM reduced its aerogel demand; the company sold $168.9 million of PyroThin products in 2025, primarily to GM, and manufactures at a single facility in East Providence, Rhode Island, supplemented by contract manufacturing in China