An attractive forward multiple near 10 times earnings and free cash flow converting at nearly 3 times reported net income provide a fundamental floor for patient value buyers, but failed momentum, 56% customer concentration, and an unfavorable risk/reward at the current price — with downside exceeding upside — argue for caution rather than new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Attractive Forward Valuation↓Deteriorating
- High Customer Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Aptiv PLC (APTV) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Weak growth.
Aptiv PLC is a global automotive technology supplier operating across three segments: Advanced Safety and User Experience, Engineered Components Group, and Electrical Distribution Systems (subject to spin-off as Versigent). Revenue comes from OEM purchase orders tied to vehicle... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Aptiv PLC
Latest news
- NEWS Aptiv PLC stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Aptiv PLC stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com positive
- NEWS Aptiv PLC stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Aptiv PLC (APTV) suffers a larger drop than the general market: Key insights - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS APTV Maintained by BNP Paribas -- Price Target Lowered to $83.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:44:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers56%10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 56% of our total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomerindividual Global OEM10%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 10% to an individual Global OEM'
- MEDIUMCustomertop 5 customers42%10-K Item 1A: 'Our five largest customers accounted for approximately 42% of our total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicAsia Pacific29%10-K Item 1: '29% of our net sales came from the Asia Pacific region, which we have identified as a key market likely to experience substantial long-term growth'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $46.09. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $59.95 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $46.09. Stop-loss: $46.09.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Aptiv PLC trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover APTV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $67.
What does Aptiv PLC do?Aptiv PLC is a global automotive technology supplier operating across three segments: Advanced Safety and User...
Aptiv PLC is a global automotive technology supplier operating across three segments: Advanced Safety and User Experience, Engineered Components Group, and Electrical Distribution Systems (subject to spin-off as Versigent). Revenue comes from OEM purchase orders tied to vehicle production, with the top 10 customers representing approximately 56% of 2025 net sales across 139 manufacturing facilities in 50 countries.