Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
- ▸Attractively valued
APTV · Why this verdict
Why Aptiv (APTV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aptiv trades at a steep discount (forward P/E 6.8x, 32% to the analyst target) with strong cash conversion and heavy insider buying, but a confirmed downtrend, 56% top-10 customer concentration and below-average quality keep it a speculative recovery rather than a core holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Aptiv converts earnings to cash at 735% FCF/net income and posts a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating balance-sheet and cash-flow health despite thin margins. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remains well above net income and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterA 735% ratio is inflated by very low net income (net margin component 0.5), so it may reflect depressed earnings rather than robust cash generation. | ||
Aptiv is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 6.8x and a PEG of 0.95, with 32% upside to the analyst target. Bull case | Price narrows the gap to the $57.90 analyst target while forward earnings estimates hold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe discount may be a value trap: net margin is thin, earnings growth scores 0.0, and the stock sits 44% off its 52-week high for a reason. | ||
Insiders bought $8.25M of stock across 6 purchases in 90 days with zero sales, signaling management conviction. Insider | Insider activity stays net positive and institutions continue accumulating over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchases equal only 0.089% of market cap and may be a modest signal that does not predict a turnaround. | ||
The top 10 customers account for 56.0% of revenue, leaving Aptiv exposed to a few automakers' volumes and pricing pressure. Bear case | Concentration stays at or below the current 56% as the customer base broadens. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration is typical for auto suppliers with long-term programs, so it may be priced in and not a real threat. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with a -5.8%/30d slope, yet OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is improving, so the downtrend is not yet confirmed as reversed. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross and a confirmed downtrend with a 3.40 put/call ratio suggest the market is still positioning for further downside. | ||
Aptiv converts earnings to cash at 735% FCF/net income and posts a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating balance-sheet and cash-flow health despite thin margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains well above net income and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterA 735% ratio is inflated by very low net income (net margin component 0.5), so it may reflect depressed earnings rather than robust cash generation.
Aptiv is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 6.8x and a PEG of 0.95, with 32% upside to the analyst target.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price narrows the gap to the $57.90 analyst target while forward earnings estimates hold.
CounterThe discount may be a value trap: net margin is thin, earnings growth scores 0.0, and the stock sits 44% off its 52-week high for a reason.
Insiders bought $8.25M of stock across 6 purchases in 90 days with zero sales, signaling management conviction.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity stays net positive and institutions continue accumulating over the next 12 months.
CounterThe purchases equal only 0.089% of market cap and may be a modest signal that does not predict a turnaround.
The top 10 customers account for 56.0% of revenue, leaving Aptiv exposed to a few automakers' volumes and pricing pressure.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration stays at or below the current 56% as the customer base broadens.
CounterConcentration is typical for auto suppliers with long-term programs, so it may be priced in and not a real threat.
Price is below its 200-day average with a -5.8%/30d slope, yet OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is improving, so the downtrend is not yet confirmed as reversed.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5.
CounterA death cross and a confirmed downtrend with a 3.40 put/call ratio suggest the market is still positioning for further downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 735% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.7x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $8,254,508 (0.088% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 2.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.58
- ▸High IV: 174%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:5.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.61
Upside
+40.1%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Insider at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Momentum at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Discount
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x at current price because forward earnings estimates fall more than 30%.
- P2Insider Accumulation Signal
Trip ifInsiders become net sellers with total sell value of more than $1M over a 90-day window.
- P3Cash Conversion Strength
Trip ifFCF/net income conversion falls below 100% or the Piotroski F-Score drops to 5 or less.
- P4Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifTop 10 customer concentration exceeds 60% of revenue.
- P5Downtrend Recovery Attempt
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from current 5.2.