Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
- ▸Attractively valued
APTV · Why this verdict
Why Aptiv (APTV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
An attractive forward multiple near 10 times earnings and free cash flow converting at nearly 3 times reported net income provide a fundamental floor for patient value buyers, but failed momentum, 56% customer concentration, and an unfavorable risk/reward at the current price — with downside exceeding upside — argue for caution rather than new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow converts at 299% of reported net income, meaning the business generates nearly three times more cash than GAAP earnings suggest, supported by a Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 that signals broad financial health despite modest reported margins. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for the next four quarters, confirming durable cash generation above reported earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith no identified competitive moat and weak gross margin characteristics, the strong cash conversion may reflect asset-light timing dynamics or low capital intensity in the near term; a structural deterioration in the product mix could quickly erode both reported margins and cash generation simultaneously. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8 times and a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.07, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings and growth trajectory — the bundle explicitly characterizes it as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings per share expands enough to keep the forward price-to-earnings ratio below 12 times over the next 12 months, validating the low-multiple entry thesis. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterValuation multiples can remain compressed for extended periods when business quality is below average and momentum is in a confirmed downtrend; screens cheap is not the same as the catalyst that closes the gap exists. | ||
The top 10 customers account for 56% of total revenue, meaning a significant portion of the business depends on a small set of relationships; loss or material reduction in orders from any major customer could produce a disproportionate impact on the revenue base. Bear case | Revenue from the top 10 customers falls below 45% of total revenue within 18 months, reflecting meaningful diversification of the customer base. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIn the auto parts industry, deep integration with a small number of large vehicle manufacturers can reflect genuine switching costs and long-cycle program awards rather than fragile concentration; established relationships may be more durable than the concentration percentage implies. | ||
Price momentum has failed its minimum threshold, volume accumulation shows a distributional pattern with falling on-balance volume, and the risk/reward at current levels is unfavorable — with downside exceeding the 5.7% upside to target — making the near-term setup unattractive even with fundamental value present. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above the minimum threshold and on-balance volume turns positive for more than 30 consecutive trading days, signaling renewed accumulation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock trades above its 200-day moving average despite the weak momentum signal, meaning the longer-term price structure has not broken down; a value-oriented catalyst such as a beat-and-raise earnings report could quickly shift the technical picture. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced beats — most recently by 7.9%, preceded by one in-line print, then two beats of 18.8% and 15.8% — with an average quarterly surprise of roughly 10.7% and no outright misses, suggesting a consistent pattern of delivering at or above market expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 5% for the next two consecutive quarters, maintaining the positive delivery trend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent in-line result breaks the prior beat streak; with customer concentration high and momentum weak, the next earnings print carries meaningful downside risk if any major customer reduces orders. | ||
Free cash flow converts at 299% of reported net income, meaning the business generates nearly three times more cash than GAAP earnings suggest, supported by a Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 that signals broad financial health despite modest reported margins.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for the next four quarters, confirming durable cash generation above reported earnings.
CounterWith no identified competitive moat and weak gross margin characteristics, the strong cash conversion may reflect asset-light timing dynamics or low capital intensity in the near term; a structural deterioration in the product mix could quickly erode both reported margins and cash generation simultaneously.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8 times and a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.07, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings and growth trajectory — the bundle explicitly characterizes it as attractively valued.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings per share expands enough to keep the forward price-to-earnings ratio below 12 times over the next 12 months, validating the low-multiple entry thesis.
CounterValuation multiples can remain compressed for extended periods when business quality is below average and momentum is in a confirmed downtrend; screens cheap is not the same as the catalyst that closes the gap exists.
The top 10 customers account for 56% of total revenue, meaning a significant portion of the business depends on a small set of relationships; loss or material reduction in orders from any major customer could produce a disproportionate impact on the revenue base.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from the top 10 customers falls below 45% of total revenue within 18 months, reflecting meaningful diversification of the customer base.
CounterIn the auto parts industry, deep integration with a small number of large vehicle manufacturers can reflect genuine switching costs and long-cycle program awards rather than fragile concentration; established relationships may be more durable than the concentration percentage implies.
Price momentum has failed its minimum threshold, volume accumulation shows a distributional pattern with falling on-balance volume, and the risk/reward at current levels is unfavorable — with downside exceeding the 5.7% upside to target — making the near-term setup unattractive even with fundamental value present.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the minimum threshold and on-balance volume turns positive for more than 30 consecutive trading days, signaling renewed accumulation.
CounterThe stock trades above its 200-day moving average despite the weak momentum signal, meaning the longer-term price structure has not broken down; a value-oriented catalyst such as a beat-and-raise earnings report could quickly shift the technical picture.
Three of the last four quarters produced beats — most recently by 7.9%, preceded by one in-line print, then two beats of 18.8% and 15.8% — with an average quarterly surprise of roughly 10.7% and no outright misses, suggesting a consistent pattern of delivering at or above market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 5% for the next two consecutive quarters, maintaining the positive delivery trend.
CounterThe most recent in-line result breaks the prior beat streak; with customer concentration high and momentum weak, the next earnings print carries meaningful downside risk if any major customer reduces orders.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 735% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.34 (n=6)
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $4,634,559 (0.044% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 154%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(5)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.27
Upside
+23.7%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.36>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Sentiment at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Momentum at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 16 times, indicating the stock no longer screens as attractively valued on forward earnings.
- P2Exceptional Fcf Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue from the top 10 customers falls below 45% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, reflecting meaningful customer diversification.
- P4Negative Momentum Volume Distribution
Trip ifPrice momentum score rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns positive for more than 30 consecutive trading days.
- P5Earnings Delivery Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the no-miss delivery track record.