APA Corporation combines an exceptional earnings beat track record averaging roughly 40% positive surprise over four consecutive quarters with a forward price-to-earnings of 8.1x, 18% net margins, and about 12% upside to the take-profit level at a risk/reward of roughly 2.9-to-1 — offset by a 12% revenue decline, momentum that remains below the threshold for a clean setup, and a 10% short interest reflecting residual skepticism about earnings sustainability.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins And Balance Sheet→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Energy Sector Valuation↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%.
APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About APA Corporation
About APA Corporation
APA Corporation produced 169.5 MMboe in 2025, with the U.S. Permian Basin contributing 62% of total volumes and 53% of oil and gas revenues, Egypt's Western Desert contributing 31% of volumes, and North Sea assets adding 7%, generating $7.2 billion in production revenue. Year-end 2025 proved reserves totaled 1,056 MMboe, with 74% attributed to U.S. assets. APA completed the $4.5 billion Callon acquisition on April 1, 2024, adding approximately 120,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin and 25,000 net acres in the Midland Basin.
North American revenue derives from Permian Basin oil priced at WTI-linked indices, natural gas sold at liquid index points to utilities, marketers, and midstream companies, and NGLs priced on Gulf Coast supply conditions. Long-term delivery commitments require an average of 152 Bcf of natural gas per year from 2026 through 2029 and 49 Bcf per year from 2030 through 2037, plus crude oil commitments averaging 1.8 MMbbls per year from 2026 through 2028, all at market-based pricing. Egypt operations are conducted through a joint venture two-thirds owned by APA and one-third by Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, with substantially all 2025 Egyptian natural gas sold to EGPC at a minimum of $2.65 per MMBtu. The North Sea segment has been in wind-down since 2023, with new drilling suspended and production expected to cease before 2030 following a determination that new regulatory obligations — including significant U.K. tax levies and infrastructure modernization requirements — made investment uneconomical.
Show full overview
The Permian Basin is APA's largest single asset concentration: the company holds approximately 406,000 gross acres in the Midland Basin and 217,000 gross acres in the Delaware Basin of West Texas, with operations targeting the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and Barnett formations. Egypt adds a second material dependency: the 2021 merged concession agreement consolidated 98% of APA's gross Egyptian acreage under one arrangement with a fixed 40% cost recovery limit and a 30% profit-sharing rate, refreshing development lease terms for 20 years and exploration leases for 5 years. Suriname's GranMorgu development — a joint venture with TotalEnergies as 50% operator — committed APA to 12.5% of the first $10 billion in gross capital, with a 220,000 b/d FPSO targeting first oil in 2028.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From APA Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — APA Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS APA Corp (APA) Stock Up 4.3% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 64/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS APA Corporation and Occidental Petroleum Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS APA Corporation: No Hedges, No Limits--Perfectly Positioned To Benefit From Eleveted Oil Prices - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons APA Has Explosive Upside Potential - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS APA Corp (APA) Stock Price, Trades & News - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T09:22:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $37.46 (+3.8%), stop $33.77 (−6.8%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.46 (+3.6% upside). Target $37.46 (+3.8%), stop $33.77 (−6.8%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $33.77.
Thin upside margin: 3.6%.
APA Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover APA with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $42.
What does APA Corporation do?APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of...
APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2 billion in 2025 across 169.5 MMboe of total production. The company expects to cease North Sea production before 2030.