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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $145.26, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56.0%).

Chord Energy is an independent E&P company operating exclusively in the Williston Basin with 1.3 million net leasehold acres and 2025 average daily production of 276,620 Boepd. Proved reserves total 917.5 MMBoe with crude oil representing 56% of the mix; the company returns... Read more

$145.26+2.4% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#34 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $135.13Target $148.82(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$165.35+13.8%17 analysts
$148.82our TP
$145.26price
$165.35mean
$129
$226

Sell if holding. At $145.26, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin
Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)194.8
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA4.1
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth-19.4%
Beta0.53
Dividend3.56%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicWilliston Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our producing properties and operations are located in the Williston Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a concentrated geographic area.'
  • HIGHCommoditycrude oil56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'estimated our net proved reserves to be 917.5 MMBoe, of which 69% were classified as proved developed and 56% were crude oil'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -19.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -19%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.9
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $119.92Resistance $146.69

Price Targets

$135
$149
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.4% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHRD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $145.26, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $135.13. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHRD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $148.82 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $135.13. Stop-loss: $135.13.

What are the risks of investing in CHRD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CHRD overvalued or undervalued?

Chord Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 194.8 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHRD?

26 analysts cover CHRD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $165.

What does Chord Energy Corporation do?Chord Energy is an independent E&P company operating exclusively in the Williston Basin with 1.3 million net leasehold...

Chord Energy is an independent E&P company operating exclusively in the Williston Basin with 1.3 million net leasehold acres and 2025 average daily production of 276,620 Boepd. Proved reserves total 917.5 MMBoe with crude oil representing 56% of the mix; the company returns significant capital via dividends and buybacks.

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