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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $149.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Chord Energy is an independent E&P company focused on the Williston Basin with 1.3M net acres (largest operator position), producing crude oil (56% of proved reserves), NGL, and natural gas with 276,620 net Boepd in 2025. Net proved reserves of 917.5 MMBoe; acquired Enerplus in... Read more

$149.65+4.3% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#9 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.38%
IncomeYield3.48%(5y avg 5.08%)Payout702.70%at-risk
Stop $137.97Target $154.80(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$172.00+14.9%16 analysts
$154.80our TP
$149.65price
$172.00mean
$135
$224

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $149.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Chord Energy Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin (substantially all operations)
Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56% of proved reserves) (56.0%)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA4.5
Profit Mgn-1.3%
ROE-0.8%
Rev Growth38.5%
Beta0.40
Dividend3.48%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicWilliston Basin (substantially all operations)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our producing properties and operations are located in the Williston Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a concentrated geographic area'
  • HIGHCommoditycrude oil (56% of proved reserves)56%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 56% of our 917.5 MMBoe estimated net proved reserves were comprised of crude oil'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.0
Operating Margin
2.3
Current Ratio
4.1
Gross Margin
5.4
Fcf Quality
5.8
Moat
6.5
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 9%, FCF yield 5.4%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 8.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $130.03Resistance $150.63

Price Targets

$138
$155
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHRD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $149.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $137.97. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHRD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.80 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $137.97. Stop-loss: $137.97.

What are the risks of investing in CHRD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Williston Basin (substantially all operations); Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil (56% of proved reserves) (56.0%); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is CHRD overvalued or undervalued?

Chord Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHRD?

25 analysts cover CHRD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $172.

What does Chord Energy Corporation do?Chord Energy is an independent E&P company focused on the Williston Basin with 1.3M net acres (largest operator...

Chord Energy is an independent E&P company focused on the Williston Basin with 1.3M net acres (largest operator position), producing crude oil (56% of proved reserves), NGL, and natural gas with 276,620 net Boepd in 2025. Net proved reserves of 917.5 MMBoe; acquired Enerplus in May 2024; committed to significant capital return through base dividends and buybacks.

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