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APAAPA CorporationHold5.9·$34.30-1.36%
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APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2... Read more

$34.30+13.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#18 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.76%
IncomeYield2.88%(5y avg 2.67%)Payout23.31%sustainable
Stop $32.79Target $38.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$43.24+26.1%25 analysts
$38.92our TP
$34.30price
$43.24mean
$62

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About APA Corporation

About APA Corporation

APA Corporation produced 169.5 MMboe in 2025, with the U.S. Permian Basin contributing 62% of total volumes and 53% of oil and gas revenues, Egypt's Western Desert contributing 31% of volumes, and North Sea assets adding 7%, generating $7.2 billion in production revenue. Year-end 2025 proved reserves totaled 1,056 MMboe, with 74% attributed to U.S. assets. APA completed the $4.5 billion Callon acquisition on April 1, 2024, adding approximately 120,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin and 25,000 net acres in the Midland Basin.

North American revenue derives from Permian Basin oil priced at WTI-linked indices, natural gas sold at liquid index points to utilities, marketers, and midstream companies, and NGLs priced on Gulf Coast supply conditions. Long-term delivery commitments require an average of 152 Bcf of natural gas per year from 2026 through 2029 and 49 Bcf per year from 2030 through 2037, plus crude oil commitments averaging 1.8 MMbbls per year from 2026 through 2028, all at market-based pricing. Egypt operations are conducted through a joint venture two-thirds owned by APA and one-third by Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, with substantially all 2025 Egyptian natural gas sold to EGPC at a minimum of $2.65 per MMBtu. The North Sea segment has been in wind-down since 2023, with new drilling suspended and production expected to cease before 2030 following a determination that new regulatory obligations — including significant U.K. tax levies and infrastructure modernization requirements — made investment uneconomical.

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The Permian Basin is APA's largest single asset concentration: the company holds approximately 406,000 gross acres in the Midland Basin and 217,000 gross acres in the Delaware Basin of West Texas, with operations targeting the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and Barnett formations. Egypt adds a second material dependency: the 2021 merged concession agreement consolidated 98% of APA's gross Egyptian acreage under one arrangement with a fixed 40% cost recovery limit and a 30% profit-sharing rate, refreshing development lease terms for 20 years and exploration leases for 5 years. Suriname's GranMorgu development — a joint venture with TotalEnergies as 50% operator — committed APA to 12.5% of the first $10 billion in gross capital, with a 220,000 b/d FPSO targeting first oil in 2028.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

From APA Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$12.3B
EV/EBITDA3.4
Profit Mgn18.3%
ROE26.2%
Rev Growth-11.9%
Beta0.33
Dividend2.88%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$65+89.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
5.6
Rsi
7.5
Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
6.6
Value Rank
7.9
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.80Resistance $41.58

Price Targets

$33
$39
A.Upside+13.5%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $38.92 (+13.5%), stop $32.79 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.92 (+13.6% upside). Target $38.92 (+13.5%), stop $32.79 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $32.79.

What are the risks of investing in APA?

Negative momentum.

Is APA overvalued or undervalued?

APA Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about APA?

32 analysts cover APA with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $43.

What does APA Corporation do?APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of...

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2 billion in 2025 across 169.5 MMboe of total production. The company expects to cease North Sea production before 2030.

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