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APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (62% of 2025 production, primarily Permian Basin), Egypt (31%, operated via PSC with EGPC), and the North Sea UK (7%, winding down). Revenue of $7.2 billion in 2025 production revenue; Suriname... Read more

$40.44+0.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#18 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield11.70%
IncomeYield2.44%(5y avg 2.63%)Payout23.31%sustainable
Stop $38.05Target $41.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$42.04+4.0%26 analysts
$41.25our TP
$40.44price
$42.04mean
$32
$56

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — APA Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$14.5B
EV/EBITDA3.8
Profit Mgn18.3%
ROE26.2%
Rev Growth-11.9%
Beta0.37
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States62%
    10-K Item 1: 'United States| | 105.0 | | | 62 | %| | $| 3,819 | | | 781 | | | 74 | %'
  • MEDIUMGeographicEgypt31%
    10-K Item 1: 'Egypt(1)| | 53.3 | | | 31 | %| | 2,637 | | | 176 | | | 17 | %'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
6.6
Value Rank
7.9
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.17Resistance $42.09

Price Targets

$38
$41
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $41.25 (+2.0%), stop $38.05 (−6.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.25 (+0.8% upside). Target $41.25 (+2.0%), stop $38.05 (−6.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $38.05.

What are the risks of investing in APA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is APA overvalued or undervalued?

APA Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about APA?

33 analysts cover APA with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $42.

What does APA Corporation do?APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (62% of 2025 production,...

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (62% of 2025 production, primarily Permian Basin), Egypt (31%, operated via PSC with EGPC), and the North Sea UK (7%, winding down). Revenue of $7.2 billion in 2025 production revenue; Suriname development (GranMorgu) targeting first oil in 2028.

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