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APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs.

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (Permian Basin), Egypt (Western Desert), and the North Sea (offshore U.K.), plus development activities in Suriname. Revenue comes from crude oil, natural gas, and NGL sales to domestic and... Read more

$39.76+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#26 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $36.93Target $43.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$41.33+4.0%27 analysts
$43.11our TP
$39.76price
$41.33mean
$29
$56

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$14.2B
EV/EBITDA3.8
Profit Mgn16.5%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth-28.0%
Beta0.48
Dividend2.48%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditycrude oil, natural gas, and NGLs
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's revenues, operating results, future rate of growth, and carrying value of its oil and gas properties depend highly upon the prices it receives for its sales of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL products'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -28.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -28%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
6.5
Value Rank
8.4
Attractive P/E vs peersSuperior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.21Resistance $43.99

Price Targets

$37
$43
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.93. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.11 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $36.93. Stop-loss: $36.93.

What are the risks of investing in APA?

Concentration risk — Commodity: crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is APA overvalued or undervalued?

APA Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APA?

34 analysts cover APA with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $41.

What does APA Corporation do?APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (Permian Basin), Egypt (Western...

APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (Permian Basin), Egypt (Western Desert), and the North Sea (offshore U.K.), plus development activities in Suriname. Revenue comes from crude oil, natural gas, and NGL sales to domestic and international markets. The company has a substantial reserve base and is focused on financial discipline, debt reduction, and shareholder returns.

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