The stock has reached a technically oversold extreme—RSI at 28, below all moving averages in a death cross formation—while analyst consensus implies approximately 52% upside, but free cash flow is deeply negative at a magnitude equivalent to nearly 700% of reported earnings, business quality sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, and the most recent quarter produced an earnings miss; the 200-day average continues to slope upward at roughly 5.5% over thirty days, leaving open the possibility this is a pullback within a longer-term uptrend, though the quality and momentum concerns dominate today.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Fcf Deficit Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Technical Oversold Pullback In Uptrend→Stable
- Analyst Consensus 52pct Upside→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.69: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Ameresco designs, builds, and operates energy efficiency and renewable energy infrastructure projects for government, utility, and commercial customers across North America and Europe, with roughly 60 offices and over 1,600 employees. Revenue comes from energy savings... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.69: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About Ameresco, Inc.
About Ameresco, Inc.
Ameresco held $2.5 billion of fully-contracted backlog as of December 31, 2025, plus another $2.6 billion in awarded but not-yet-signed project value, alongside a separate $1.5 billion of recurring operations-and-maintenance backlog. The company operates through five segments — North America Regions (45.8% of 2025 revenue), Europe (27.4%), U.S. Federal (15.1%), Renewable Fuels (8.2%), and All Other (3.5%) — with government entities supplying 61.0% of total 2025 revenue.
Ameresco earns revenue primarily through energy savings performance contracts, under which it designs, engineers, and installs efficiency measures for customers' facilities, and power purchase agreements tied to renewable energy plants it owns and operates, such as solar, biogas, and renewable natural gas assets. After a project is completed, Ameresco frequently signs multi-year operations-and-maintenance contracts that provide recurring revenue independent of new construction activity. The federal government is treated as a single customer and its own reporting segment, and government entities overall — federal, state, provincial, and local, including public housing authorities and municipal utilities — accounted for 61.0% of 2025 revenue, down from 67.3% in 2024. Ameresco relies on subcontractors for substantially all construction and installation work and depends on third-party manufacturers for project components, exposing it to price and availability risk from tariffs and global supply chain disruptions; named competitors in energy efficiency services include Johnson Controls, Honeywell, and Siemens Building Technologies.
Show full overview
Ameresco's government-contract concentration cuts two ways. Government entities supplied 61.0% of 2025 revenue, and government contracts customarily give the counterparty the right to terminate for convenience or reduce funding at any time, subject only to a negotiated termination payment covering costs and profit on completed work. The 10-K also flags that 'a significant reduction of the federal workforce could delay federal contracting' and that Congress's fiscal-year appropriation cycle means major programs often start without full multi-year funding committed. Separately, Ameresco disclosed a dispute with a customer referred to in the filing as SCE over completion delays on a battery energy storage project, which could expose it to liquidated damages of up to $89 million.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From Ameresco, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ameresco, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ameresco And HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Joint Venture Neogenyx Fuels Awards Anaergia C$58M U.S. RNG Infrastru — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Ameresco, Raises Price Target to $45 — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ameresco Completes Spin Off Of Its Biofuels Operations Into Newly Formed Joint Venture With HA Sustainable Infrastructur — benzinga May 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy on Ameresco, Raises Price Target to $59 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Baird Maintains Outperform on Ameresco, Lowers Price Target to $36 — benzinga May 5, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T17:32:23Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. federal government15%10-K Item 1: 'U.S. Federal| 15.1 ... The U.S. federal government is considered a single customer and segment for reporting purposes'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-08Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved an amendment to the 2020 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares reserved for issuance by 3,200,000 shares of Class A common stock at the June 4, 2026 Annual Meeting; Board had approved the amendment, subject to stockholder approval, on February 10, 2026. No director or officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.69: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.97. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.32 (+39.0% upside). Prior stop was $24.97. Stop-loss: $24.97.
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
Ameresco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.8 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AMRC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Ameresco, Inc. do?Ameresco designs, builds, and operates energy efficiency and renewable energy infrastructure projects for government,...
Ameresco designs, builds, and operates energy efficiency and renewable energy infrastructure projects for government, utility, and commercial customers across North America and Europe, with roughly 60 offices and over 1,600 employees. Revenue comes from energy savings performance contracts and power purchase agreements plus recurring operations-and-maintenance services, with $2.5 billion of contracted backlog as of December 31, 2025. Government entities, including the U.S. federal government treated as its own reporting segment, supplied 61.0% of 2025 revenue.