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Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.05: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below-average business quality.

Ameresco, Inc. engages in the provision of energy solutions in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company operates through North America Regions, U.S. Federal, Renewable Fuels, Europe, and All Other segments. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy... Read more

$29.05+27.0% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#30 of 30 Engineering & Construction
Stop $27.14Target $37.06(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$42.60+46.6%10 analysts
$37.06our TP
$29.05price
$42.60mean
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.05: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.9
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE5.2%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta2.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C6.50bearish
IV107%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
1.0
Beta
1.3
Debt Equity
2.8
Short Interest
2.9
Days To Cover
3.9
Elevated put/call: 6.50High IV: 107%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
0.1
52w Position
3.0
Gap
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
1.1
Roa
1.2
Roe
1.7
Operating Margin
3.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.5
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -759% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
6.9
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.20Resistance $29.19

Price Targets

$27
$37
A.Upside+27.6%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.05: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $27.14. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.06 (+27.0% upside). Prior stop was $27.14. Stop-loss: $27.14.

What are the risks of investing in AMRC?

Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow.

Is AMRC overvalued or undervalued?

Ameresco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.9 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMRC?

18 analysts cover AMRC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Ameresco, Inc. do?Ameresco, Inc. engages in the provision of energy solutions in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company...

Ameresco, Inc. engages in the provision of energy solutions in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company operates through North America Regions, U.S. Federal, Renewable Fuels, Europe, and All Other segments. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations. The company also designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance (O&M) costs of its customers' facilities; and projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. In addition, it offers renewable energy solutions and services, such as the development and construction of small-scale plants that the company owns or develops for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy and O&M services; and sells electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, and heat or cooling produced from renewable sources of energy. Further, the company provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy products and systems, as well as provides consulting, and enterprise energy management services. It serves the federal, state and local governments, utilities, data centers, educational and healthcare institutions, housing authorities, and commercial and industrial customers. Ameresco, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

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