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CDLRCadeler A/SSell5.7·$23.45
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revenue growth of 90% year-over-year, operating margins of 40% that rank best-in-class relative to peers, and a favorable risk/reward of approximately 4.6-to-1 with 27% upside to the analyst target make this a compelling growth setup; the primary risk is deeply negative free cash flow at -204% of net income, which signals that reported earnings are not yet converting into cash and that the balance sheet could require external capital if the growth investment phase is prolonged.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Margin Profile→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation And Upside→Stable
  • High Growth Revenue Inflection→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Cadeler A/S (CDLR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $23.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.

Cadeler A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore wind installation vessel contractor in Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, rest of Europe, the United States, and Taiwan. The company engages in the transport and installation of offshore wind turbine... Read more

$23.45+23.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#20 of 33 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-15.53%
Stop $22.50Target $28.90(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$34.00+45.0%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $23.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 31%
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)—
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth21.3%
Beta0.71
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.8
Strong growth: 21% YoY
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.20Resistance $26.07

Price Targets

$23
$29
A.Upside+23.2%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDLR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $23.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $22.50. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CDLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.90 (+23.2% upside). Prior stop was $22.50. Stop-loss: $22.50.

What are the risks of investing in CDLR?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is CDLR overvalued or undervalued?

Cadeler A/S trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDLR?

17 analysts cover CDLR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Cadeler A/S do?Cadeler A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore wind installation vessel contractor in Denmark,...

Cadeler A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore wind installation vessel contractor in Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, rest of Europe, the United States, and Taiwan. The company engages in the transport and installation of offshore wind turbine generators, foundations, and topsides and substations; maintenance of offshore wind turbine generators, and offshore structures and platforms; and offshore construction within the renewable space. It is also involved offshore decommissioning within the renewable space; salvage assistance; and heavy lift and project cargo. In addition, the company owns and operates ten offshore jack-up windfarm installation vessels. Further, it also provides hydraulic pile driving solutions. Cadeler A/S was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Related stocks: ECG (Everus Construction Group, Inc.) · AGX (Argan, Inc.) · IESC (IES Holdings, Inc.) · WLDN (Willdan Group, Inc.) · MYRG (MYR Group, Inc.)
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