Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.17
AMRC · Why this verdict
Why Ameresco (AMRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ameresco is a depressed small cap with 77.3% upside to the $36.02 analyst target and notable insider buying, but cash flow is deeply negative, quality scores only 2.3/10, the trend is down and short interest of 18% makes it a speculative recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -1311% of net income, a weak 3/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat, giving a quality score of 2.3/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive as project spending converts into operating cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterConstruction and energy-project developers carry large working capital and project-asset spending, so the negative ratio may reflect timing rather than weak earnings. | ||
The price of $20.31 sits 77.3% below the $36.02 analyst target, with 12.1% downside and a reward-to-risk of 6.37. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $18.89 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is 55% off its 52-week high, so large targets have not held up. | ||
Insiders made 13 purchases worth about $1.89 million over 90 days against $24,000 of sales, equal to 0.175% of market cap. Net value 90d | Insiders should remain net buyers while the stock trades near current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying is small versus a $1.1 billion market cap and has not stopped a 55% drawdown. | ||
The price is below a 200-day average that is falling 5.4% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should reclaim the average as volume accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with a steep falling average usually marks continued selling pressure rather than a bottom. | ||
Short interest is high at 18%, the put/call ratio is elevated at 5.75 and implied volatility is 107%, signalling heavy bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | Short interest and put buying should ease as earnings on November 9 reduce uncertainty. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy short positioning can fuel a squeeze if results surprise to the upside. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -1311% of net income, a weak 3/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat, giving a quality score of 2.3/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive as project spending converts into operating cash flow.
CounterConstruction and energy-project developers carry large working capital and project-asset spending, so the negative ratio may reflect timing rather than weak earnings.
The price of $20.31 sits 77.3% below the $36.02 analyst target, with 12.1% downside and a reward-to-risk of 6.37.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $18.89 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is 55% off its 52-week high, so large targets have not held up.
Insiders made 13 purchases worth about $1.89 million over 90 days against $24,000 of sales, equal to 0.175% of market cap.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insiders should remain net buyers while the stock trades near current levels.
CounterInsider buying is small versus a $1.1 billion market cap and has not stopped a 55% drawdown.
The price is below a 200-day average that is falling 5.4% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should reclaim the average as volume accumulation continues.
CounterA death cross with a steep falling average usually marks continued selling pressure rather than a bottom.
Short interest is high at 18%, the put/call ratio is elevated at 5.75 and implied volatility is 107%, signalling heavy bearish positioning.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest and put buying should ease as earnings on November 9 reduce uncertainty.
CounterHeavy short positioning can fuel a squeeze if results surprise to the upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.4 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1311% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 5.3 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 95%
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,890,622 (0.160% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 1.6 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.40
- ▸High IV: 117%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.96
Upside
+69.5%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 5d<=7d outcome against Sentiment at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 4.96.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Insider at 7.1, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.1, Peer rank at 2.2, and Quality at 2.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Negative Cash Flow
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $25, less than 25% above the current $20.31 price.
- P3Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $500,000 over 90 days.
- P4Downtrend With Volume Accumulation
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day slope rises above 0% from the current -5.4%.
- P5Short Interest Options Stress
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 25% of float from the current 18%.