Alkermes has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 300%, growing revenue at 28% year-over-year and earning one of the strongest Piotroski scores in its peer group — yet the stock is trading within 1.1% of its price target with an RSI of 77 and a negative risk/reward ratio, making the setup unattractive for new entry at current levels despite the fundamental quality.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Overbought At Price Target↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Wait for pullback to $44.93. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $52.66. Engine's entry $44.93 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).
Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen... Read more
Wait for pullback to $44.93. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $52.66. Engine's entry $44.93 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Alkermes plc
About Alkermes plc
Alkermes' five marketed neuroscience brands in the U.S. as of early 2026 are ARISTADA and ARISTADA INITIO (aripiprazole lauroxil, schizophrenia), LYBALVI (olanzapine/samidorphan, schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder), VIVITROL (naltrexone, alcohol and opioid dependence), and LUMRYZ (sodium oxybate, narcolepsy) — the last added via the Avadel Acquisition completed February 12, 2026 at $21.00 per share plus a contingent value right. Alkermes also earns royalties and manufacturing revenue from licensees; revenues from Janssen collaborative arrangements accounted for approximately 9% of consolidated revenues in 2025, down from 17% in 2024 and 31% in 2023.
Revenue flows through three channels. Direct proprietary product sales — ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ — target U.S. specialty channels in psychiatry and addiction medicine. Manufacturing revenue comes from RISPERDAL CONSTA microspheres, which Alkermes exclusively produces at its Wilmington, Ohio facility for Janssen at a minimum fee of 7.5% on net unit sales. Royalty revenue is earned from Janssen's long-acting INVEGA paliperidone products and from Biogen's worldwide sales of VUMERITY (diroximel fumarate, multiple sclerosis) at a 15% royalty rate. LUMRYZ carries a mandatory FDA REMS requiring certified prescribers and pharmacies and patient enrollment, constraining distribution; the FDA granted seven years of orphan drug exclusivity through May 1, 2030 for adult narcolepsy and October 16, 2031 for pediatric narcolepsy. The pipeline lead asset, alixorexton, received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for narcolepsy type 1 in December 2025, with Phase 3 initiation planned for Q1 2026.
Show full overview
Alixorexton is Alkermes' sole Phase 3-bound candidate and the primary organic growth vector beyond the existing portfolio. Positive Phase 2 topline data from Vibrance-1 (NT1) and Vibrance-2 (NT2) were disclosed in 2025, and Vibrance-3 (IH, phase 2) remains ongoing. If the Phase 3 program fails to demonstrate efficacy, the company would rely on existing marketed products and royalty streams — including Janssen arrangements that have declined from 31% of consolidated revenues in 2023 to 9% in 2025. LUMRYZ is also subject to a royalty of 3.85% of net narcolepsy sales payable to Jazz Pharmaceuticals under the Avadel Settlement Agreement, reducing net revenue from the newly acquired asset.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From Alkermes plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Alkermes plc
Latest news
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Has $5.44 Million Stock Position in Alkermes plc $ALKS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Alkermes (NASDAQ:ALKS) Rating Increased to Hold at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS ALKS stock surges 15% on Lilly-Centessa buyout igniting sleep pipeline hopes - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Alkermes' (NASDAQ:ALKS) Soft Earnings Are Actually Better Than They Appear - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Alkermes stock hits 52-week high at $38.94 - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-07-26T09:17:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerJanssen9.0%10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our collaborative arrangements with Janssen accounted for approximately 9% ... of our consolidated revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomerBiogen / VUMERITY10-K Item 1A: 'substantial revenue from ... Biogen's sales of VUMERITY'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWShareholders at the May 20, 2026 Annual Meeting approved amendments to the Alkermes 2018 Stock Option and Incentive Plan, increasing ordinary shares authorized for issuance by 5,900,000. Routine compensatory arrangement; no departures or appointments.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $44.93. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $52.66. Engine's entry $44.93 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $54.56 (+3.6%), stop $41.64 (−26.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.56 (-8.8% upside). Target $54.56 (+3.6%), stop $41.64 (−26.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $41.64.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -47.4%), High leverage (D/E 1.9).
Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 58.8 (forward 32.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
23 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $54.
What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ...
Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen (RISPERDAL CONSTA manufacture) and Biogen (VUMERITY); Janssen accounted for approximately 9% of 2025 consolidated revenues.