Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
ALKS · Why this verdict
Why Alkermes (ALKS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alkermes combines 27% revenue growth, a four-quarter beat streak and strong cash conversion, but the price already sits near the analyst target and earnings arrive in two days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing about 27% YoY, with quarterly revenue reaching roughly $496M in the latest quarter from about $391M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $450M over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter jumped from $393M, which may reflect one-time items rather than a sustained run rate. | ||
EPS beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, including a 141% surprise in July 2026. Earnings | EPS beats consensus again at the November 3 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSurprise sizes are very uneven and beats against low estimates may flatter the streak. | ||
Free cash flow is about 232% of net income and the Piotroski score is 8 of 9, showing high financial quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion can be inflated by working-capital timing and may normalize. | ||
The analyst target of $50.59 is only 11.6% above the $45.34 price against a 14% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.83. Targets | Upside to target widens above 20% after a pullback or estimate increases. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may raise targets after earnings, and an overbought RSI of 75 can persist in strong trends. | ||
Insiders sold about $3.75M across 8 transactions with no buys, and short interest is 16%. Insider | Insider selling slows and short interest declines below 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSales are only 0.049% of market cap, so the signal may be routine diversification. | ||
Revenue is growing about 27% YoY, with quarterly revenue reaching roughly $496M in the latest quarter from about $391M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $450M over the next 12 months.
CounterThe latest quarter jumped from $393M, which may reflect one-time items rather than a sustained run rate.
EPS beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, including a 141% surprise in July 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus again at the November 3 report.
CounterSurprise sizes are very uneven and beats against low estimates may flatter the streak.
Free cash flow is about 232% of net income and the Piotroski score is 8 of 9, showing high financial quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income through the next 12 months.
CounterCash conversion can be inflated by working-capital timing and may normalize.
The analyst target of $50.59 is only 11.6% above the $45.34 price against a 14% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.83.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Upside to target widens above 20% after a pullback or estimate increases.
CounterAnalysts may raise targets after earnings, and an overbought RSI of 75 can persist in strong trends.
Insiders sold about $3.75M across 8 transactions with no buys, and short interest is 16%.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows and short interest declines below 10%.
CounterSales are only 0.049% of market cap, so the signal may be routine diversification.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 232% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $976,918 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.1 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 4.3 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.73
Upside
+10.7%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Catalyst at 8.2, and Momentum at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Limited Upside Near Term
Trip ifPrice rises above the $50.59 analyst target without a target increase.
- P5Insider Selling Short Interest
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 0.25% of market cap over 90 days.