Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 35.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.48
ALKS · Why this verdict
Why Alkermes (ALKS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters, with positive surprises ranging from 8% to over 1,000% and an average of 300% above expectations — a streak that reflects either disciplined guidance or a structurally improving earnings trajectory. Earnings | The beat streak extends for at least two more consecutive quarters with EPS positive surprises above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's outsized positive surprise was driven by an estimate of -$0.04 versus an actual of $0.38 — a low-bar setup that may not repeat; guidance for the year remains unknown, and one reset quarter would break the streak at a time when the stock is already at its price target. | ||
Revenue is growing at 28% year-over-year, placing this company among the top performers in its specialty pharma peer group by growth rate. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth score carries only 0.67 confidence given partial data inputs, and no forward guidance has been provided — the reported 28% may reflect a one-time favorable comparison period rather than a durable compounding trajectory. | ||
The stock is trading with an RSI of 77 — in overbought territory — just 1.1% below its price target and within 3.1% of a 52-week high, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.16-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable for initiating or adding to positions. Bear case | If this concern is misplaced, price breaks more than 8% above the current target and RSI sustains above 70 on expanding volume. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought conditions can persist in strong uptrends; rising OBV and momentum at 7.1 suggest continued institutional accumulation that may carry the stock higher before any mean-reversion occurs. | ||
Short interest stands at 14% of shares outstanding, a level that creates two-sided exposure: continued selling pressure from active short positions on any fundamental disappointment, alongside a potential squeeze catalyst if momentum carries the stock above the current target. Key risks | Short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months as the bull thesis is validated. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest in a specialty pharma name often reflects informed bearish views on pipeline, patent, or pricing risks that may not be captured in the recent quarterly beat streak. | ||
The company achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting broadly sound financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions — a level of fundamental quality that is relatively rare in the specialty pharma space. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterThe strong Piotroski score has not translated into a compelling valuation setup — the stock is at its price target and offers no margin of safety, meaning the financial quality is already reflected in the market price and provides no incremental upside. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters, with positive surprises ranging from 8% to over 1,000% and an average of 300% above expectations — a streak that reflects either disciplined guidance or a structurally improving earnings trajectory.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends for at least two more consecutive quarters with EPS positive surprises above 5%.
CounterThe most recent quarter's outsized positive surprise was driven by an estimate of -$0.04 versus an actual of $0.38 — a low-bar setup that may not repeat; guidance for the year remains unknown, and one reset quarter would break the streak at a time when the stock is already at its price target.
Revenue is growing at 28% year-over-year, placing this company among the top performers in its specialty pharma peer group by growth rate.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters.
CounterThe growth score carries only 0.67 confidence given partial data inputs, and no forward guidance has been provided — the reported 28% may reflect a one-time favorable comparison period rather than a durable compounding trajectory.
The stock is trading with an RSI of 77 — in overbought territory — just 1.1% below its price target and within 3.1% of a 52-week high, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.16-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable for initiating or adding to positions.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this concern is misplaced, price breaks more than 8% above the current target and RSI sustains above 70 on expanding volume.
CounterOverbought conditions can persist in strong uptrends; rising OBV and momentum at 7.1 suggest continued institutional accumulation that may carry the stock higher before any mean-reversion occurs.
Short interest stands at 14% of shares outstanding, a level that creates two-sided exposure: continued selling pressure from active short positions on any fundamental disappointment, alongside a potential squeeze catalyst if momentum carries the stock above the current target.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months as the bull thesis is validated.
CounterElevated short interest in a specialty pharma name often reflects informed bearish views on pipeline, patent, or pricing risks that may not be captured in the recent quarterly beat streak.
The company achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting broadly sound financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions — a level of fundamental quality that is relatively rare in the specialty pharma space.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles.
CounterThe strong Piotroski score has not translated into a compelling valuation setup — the stock is at its price target and offers no margin of safety, meaning the financial quality is already reflected in the market price and provides no incremental upside.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alkermes has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 300%, growing revenue at 28% year-over-year and earning one of the strongest Piotroski scores in its peer group — yet the stock is trading within 1.1% of its price target with an RSI of 77 and a negative risk/reward ratio, making the setup unattractive for new entry at current levels despite the fundamental quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,678,218 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.23
Upside
-18.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.8; weakest: Peer rank at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Catalyst at 7.6, and Quality at 5.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Technical at 4.0, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sustained Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Overbought At Price Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds $48.50 (more than 8% above the current take-profit level) with RSI sustaining above 70.
- P4High Short Interest Creates Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% for 2 consecutive monthly readings.
- P5Strong Financial Health Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 for 2 consecutive quarters.