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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna (KNSA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $53.45, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: ARCALYST; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States.

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with ARCALYST as its sole approved product, treating recurrent pericarditis in the US and generating substantially all revenue there. US profits on ARCALYST are split evenly with Regeneron; pipeline includes... Read more

Stop $49.28Target $54.38(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$62.50+16.9%8 analysts
$54.38our TP
$53.45price
$62.50mean
$71

Sell if holding. At $53.45, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: ARCALYST; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.97)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ARCALYST
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.2
P/E (Fwd)35.9
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA46.3
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth65.0%
Beta0.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$25-53.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductARCALYST
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are currently only authorized to market ARCALYST, our sole product, for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis in the United States, where we derive substantially all of our revenue.'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1A: 'where we derive substantially all of our revenue. Our future growth may depend, in part, on our ability to commercialize our current and future products in markets outside of the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
9.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 8.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.49Resistance $54.30

Price Targets

$49
$54
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNSA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $53.45, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: ARCALYST; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $49.28. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KNSA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.38 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $49.28. Stop-loss: $49.28.

What are the risks of investing in KNSA?

Concentration risk — Product: ARCALYST; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KNSA overvalued or undervalued?

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna trades at a P/E of 58.2 (forward 35.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KNSA?

14 analysts cover KNSA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna do?Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with ARCALYST as its sole approved product,...

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with ARCALYST as its sole approved product, treating recurrent pericarditis in the US and generating substantially all revenue there. US profits on ARCALYST are split evenly with Regeneron; pipeline includes KPL-387 (Phase 2/3) and KPL-1161 (pre-clinical).

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