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Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Wait for pullback to $35.09. At $36.93 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap).

Alkermes is an Irish-headquartered biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience, with proprietary commercial products including VIVITROL (opioid/alcohol dependence), ARISTADA (schizophrenia), LYBALVI (schizophrenia/bipolar I), and LUMRYZ (narcolepsy, acquired via Avadel).... Read more

$36.93+14.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#7 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.27%
Entry $35.09(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $32.40Target $40.89(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$45.44+23.0%16 analysts
$40.89our TP
$36.93price
$45.44mean
$34
$59

Wait for pullback to $35.09. At $36.93 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Alkermes plc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.3
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA26.1
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth28.2%
Beta0.26
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWcounterpartyJanssen9.0%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our collaborative arrangements with Janssen accounted for approximately 9% ... of our consolidated revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Richard F. Pops, CEO since Alkermes' founding, notified Board on February 24, 2026 of retirement effective July 31, 2026. Blair C. Jackson (current EVP and COO) appointed CEO effective August 1, 2026. Pops will serve as Senior Advisor through December 31, 2026 and remain as non-executive Chairman.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Alkermes entered into a $1.525B credit agreement on February 12, 2026 to fund the Avadel Acquisition: $750M Term Loan A (matures Feb 2031) and $775M Term Loan B (matures Aug 2031), both at Term SOFR + 2.75% per annum. JPMorgan Chase Bank serves as Administrative Agent.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Alkermes completed acquisition of Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc on February 12, 2026 for $21.00 per ordinary share in cash plus a $1.50 contingent value right. Adds LUMRYZ (sodium oxybate for narcolepsy) and Avadel's commercial organization to Alkermes' portfolio.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
4.9
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.84Resistance $39.56

Price Targets

$32
$35
$41
A.Upside+10.7%
A.R:R0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALKS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $35.09. At $36.93 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $40.89 (+10.7%), stop $32.40 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALKS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.89 (+14.7% upside). Target $40.89 (+10.7%), stop $32.40 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $32.40.

What are the risks of investing in ALKS?

Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap).

Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued?

Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 41.3 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ALKS?

24 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes is an Irish-headquartered biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience, with proprietary commercial...

Alkermes is an Irish-headquartered biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience, with proprietary commercial products including VIVITROL (opioid/alcohol dependence), ARISTADA (schizophrenia), LYBALVI (schizophrenia/bipolar I), and LUMRYZ (narcolepsy, acquired via Avadel). Revenue comes from product sales plus royalties from Janssen and Biogen; Janssen collaborative revenues declined to ~9% of total in 2025.

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