Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ALKS stock price target?

Take-profit $39.81 (+18.5% upside). Prior stop was $31.81.

Q: Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued?

Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 48.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ALKS?

24 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 4/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen.

Alkermes is an Ireland-based biopharmaceutical company commercializing neuroscience medicines including VIVITROL (opioid/alcohol dependence), ARISTADA (schizophrenia), LYBALVI (schizophrenia/bipolar), and LUMRYZ (narcolepsy, acquired February 2026). The company also earns... Read more

$33.64+18.5% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#28 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Stop $31.81Target $39.81(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1

Analyst target$44.24+31.5%17 analysts

$39.81our TP

$33.64price

$44.24mean

$30

$58

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen

Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6

P/E (Fwd)48.2

Mkt Cap$5.6B

EV/EBITDA18.1

Profit Mgn16.4%

ROE14.7%

Rev Growth-10.6%

Beta0.39

DividendNone

Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish

IV73%elevated

Max Pain$15-55.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerJanssen
10-K Item 1A: 'we receive substantial revenue from Janssen's sales of XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA/TREVICTA, INVEGA HAFYERA/BYANNLI, and from Biogen's sales of VUMERITY.'
HIGHCustomerBiogen
10-K Item 1A: 'we receive substantial revenue from Janssen's sales of XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA/TREVICTA, INVEGA HAFYERA/BYANNLI, and from Biogen's sales of VUMERITY.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
On February 24, 2026, CEO Richard F. Pops announced retirement effective July 31, 2026, after 35 years. Successor: current COO Blair C. Jackson appointed CEO effective August 1, 2026. Pops will remain as non-executive Chairman and Senior Advisor through December 31, 2026.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.915%0.73

Quality5.815%0.87

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum4.410%0.44

Sentiment7.710%0.77

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank3.310%0.33

Technical Setup7.05%0.35

Risk Profile4.45%0.22

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)4.43

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -10.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Earnings Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -11%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.4

Value Rank

3.5

Quality Rank

6.0

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

52 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.47Resistance $35.52

Price Targets

$32

$40

A.Upside+18.3%

A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ALKS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $31.81. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the ALKS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.81 (+18.5% upside). Prior stop was $31.81. Stop-loss: $31.81.

What are the risks of investing in ALKS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing).

Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued?

Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 48.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALKS?

24 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes is an Ireland-based biopharmaceutical company commercializing neuroscience medicines including VIVITROL...