Assurant delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a 34% beat in November 2025 — and screens attractively at a forward P/E of 11.5x with a PEG of 0.13, while free cash flow runs at 203% of net income signaling strong cash generation. Yet the stock has already crossed above its price target and a hard geographic concentration gate was triggered with more than 80% of revenue in a single region, making the setup one that favors patience for existing holders rather than new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Forward Multiples Low Peg↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- North America Concentration Hard Block→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $273.63. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $282.38. Engine's entry $273.63 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to North America (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (80.7%).
Assurant provides device protection, vehicle service contracts, and lender-placed homeowners insurance through two segments: Global Lifestyle (~$9.6 billion in 2025 net earned premiums/fees) and Global Housing (~$2.8 billion). Revenue flows via B2B2C partnerships with mobile... Read more
Wait for pullback to $273.63. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $282.38. Engine's entry $273.63 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to North America (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (80.7%). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: speculative.
About Assurant, Inc.
About Assurant, Inc.
Global Lifestyle generated $9.6 billion in net earned premiums and fees in 2025—led by Connected Living's $5.4 billion and Global Automotive's $4.2 billion—while Global Housing contributed $2.8 billion across lender-placed homeowners and renters insurance. Assurant's total assets reached $36.3 billion at December 31, 2025, with 80.7% of Global Lifestyle revenue originating from North America. Both segments distribute exclusively through B2B2C partnerships rather than selling directly to end consumers.
Connected Living earns premiums and fees from mobile device protection programs distributed through carriers, OEMs, cable MSOs, and retailers, with mobile solutions accounting for 53% of Connected Living revenue in 2025. Global Automotive sells vehicle service contracts and ancillary products through auto dealers and agents across the U.S. and select international markets. Global Housing's lender-placed insurance business earns premiums when mortgage servicers place coverage on uninsured properties, a volume that benefits from hardening voluntary homeowners markets. Assurant cedes a portion of its insurance risk through reinsurance and profit-sharing arrangements with clients. The company returned $468.3 million to shareholders through repurchases and dividends in 2025, funded in part by $925.1 million in subsidiary dividends. Many Global Lifestyle agreements are exclusive and multi-year, typically three to five years, with technology integration creating embedded retention incentives.
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The 10-K explicitly states that Global Lifestyle is "dependent on a few clients, in particular those in the mobile eco-system including carriers and MSOs," and that both Global Lifestyle and Global Housing "receive a substantial portion" of revenues from a few clients. If one or more mobile carrier relationships were lost or renewed on less favorable terms—a risk the filing says has occurred from time to time—segment cash flows could be materially affected. This client concentration sits alongside reinsurance counterparty credit risk: the 10-K notes that through reinsurance Assurant has sold or exited businesses that could become its direct financial and administrative responsibility if reinsurers become insolvent.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Assurant, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Assurant, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Assurant SVP Dimitry DiRienzo sells $511k in company stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Assurant Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Assurant Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish? - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Q2 Earnings Outperformers: Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) And The Rest Of The Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Assurant Inc (AIZ) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T18:22:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerfew significant clients (Global Lifestyle and Housing)10-K Item 1A: 'Each of our Global Lifestyle and Global Housing segments receives a substantial portion of its revenues from a few clients'
- MEDIUMCustomermobile eco-system clients (carriers and MSOs)10-K Item 1: 'Global Lifestyle is dependent on a few clients, in particular those in the mobile eco-system including carriers and MSOs'
- HIGHGeographicNorth America81%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 80.7% of its revenue from North America (the U.S. and Canada)'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWAt May 21, 2026 annual meeting, stockholders approved amendment to Assurant ALTEIP increasing share reserve by 480,000 shares of common stock. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $273.63. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $282.38. Engine's entry $273.63 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to North America (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (80.7%). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $297.86 (+5.5%), stop $257.99 (−9.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $297.86 (-1.7% upside). Target $297.86 (+5.5%), stop $257.99 (−9.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $257.99.
Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to North America (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (80.7%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Assurant, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover AIZ with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $319.
What does Assurant, Inc. do?Assurant provides device protection, vehicle service contracts, and lender-placed homeowners insurance through two...
Assurant provides device protection, vehicle service contracts, and lender-placed homeowners insurance through two segments: Global Lifestyle (~$9.6 billion in 2025 net earned premiums/fees) and Global Housing (~$2.8 billion). Revenue flows via B2B2C partnerships with mobile carriers, auto dealers, and mortgage servicers. Technology integrations with clients create switching costs that support multi-year exclusive agreements.