Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
AIZ · Why this verdict
Why Assurant (AIZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Assurant is a reasonably valued insurer with excellent cash conversion (202% FCF/NI) and strong momentum, but the stock is above the analyst target and 81% of exposure is in North America.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow was 202% of net income, and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, supporting earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers' operating cash flow can be inflated by premiums received ahead of claims, which reverse when claims are paid. | ||
Forward P/E is 12.5x with a PEG of 0.14, and the stock is described as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings grow enough to keep the forward P/E below 14x as the price rises. | →Stable |
| CounterThe low PEG rests on a growth estimate that may not hold, and price is already above the analyst target. | ||
With upside of -2.9%, the $292.80 price is 2.9% above the $284.20 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.5%, so reward-to-risk is negative. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above $300, or the price pulls back toward the $282.84 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is 7.2/10 with rising on-balance volume, and analysts often raise targets after a price breakout. | ||
North America accounts for 80.7% of exposure, above the 60% single-region threshold, so a regional macroeconomic shock would hit nearly the whole business. Bear case | North America share falls below 75% as international business grows. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stable domestic insurance and warranty base provides predictable demand, and geographic concentration may be a strength in familiar markets. | ||
The RSI of 79 marks the stock as overbought even though it trades above its 200-day average with rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 without a price breakdown below the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong trends can stay overbought for long periods, and rising on-balance volume indicates real buying. | ||
Free cash flow was 202% of net income, and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, supporting earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterInsurers' operating cash flow can be inflated by premiums received ahead of claims, which reverse when claims are paid.
Forward P/E is 12.5x with a PEG of 0.14, and the stock is described as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings grow enough to keep the forward P/E below 14x as the price rises.
CounterThe low PEG rests on a growth estimate that may not hold, and price is already above the analyst target.
With upside of -2.9%, the $292.80 price is 2.9% above the $284.20 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.5%, so reward-to-risk is negative.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $300, or the price pulls back toward the $282.84 stop.
CounterMomentum is 7.2/10 with rising on-balance volume, and analysts often raise targets after a price breakout.
North America accounts for 80.7% of exposure, above the 60% single-region threshold, so a regional macroeconomic shock would hit nearly the whole business.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- North America share falls below 75% as international business grows.
CounterA stable domestic insurance and warranty base provides predictable demand, and geographic concentration may be a strength in familiar markets.
The RSI of 79 marks the stock as overbought even though it trades above its 200-day average with rising volume accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 without a price breakdown below the 200-day average.
CounterStrong trends can stay overbought for long periods, and rising on-balance volume indicates real buying.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 202% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.4x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=3)
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,188,990 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $160
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.6>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.6; weakest: Technical at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.6, Value at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.3, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80% from current 202%.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from current 12.5x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $320 while the analyst target stays below $290, a gap of more than 10%.
- P4North America Concentration
Trip ifNorth America share of exposure exceeds 90% from current 80.7%.
- P5Overbought Momentum
Trip ifShare price falls below the $282.84 stop level, a drop of more than 3.4%.