Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
AIZ · Why this verdict
Why Assurant (AIZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 0.13, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a notably low multiple that implies the market has not fully credited the earnings trajectory. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 15x over the next 12 months as earnings estimates are revised higher and the market progressively re-rates the growth story. | →Stable |
| CounterA structural discount applied for geographic concentration and a flagged key risk of below-average business quality can keep the multiple persistently compressed regardless of growth momentum; a low PEG can persist indefinitely when the market applies a consistent qualitative penalty. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a standout 34% beat in the quarter ended November 2025 — demonstrating a sustained pattern of delivering results well above market expectations. Earnings | Earnings continue to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the established track record. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock that has already crossed above its price target after a sustained beat streak may already be pricing in continued outperformance; any quarter that merely meets estimates could trigger a sell-the-news reaction given that the margin of safety has been exhausted. | ||
More than 80% of revenue is tied to North America — a concentration level significant enough to trigger a hard block — meaning any regional macroeconomic shock would translate almost entirely into an earnings shock with no meaningful offset from non-North American operations. Warnings | North American revenue contribution falls below 70% over 4 consecutive quarters as the non-North American book grows meaningfully, reducing the cliff exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep regional scale in specialty insurance and connected-device protection may generate underwriting efficiencies and claims predictability that a more geographically distributed book cannot replicate, making the concentration a source of competitive advantage rather than fragility. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 203% of reported net income, indicating the business generates substantially more real cash than accounting earnings alone reflect — a strong signal of earnings quality and balance sheet durability that supports dividend coverage and capital flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 120% for the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the cash-generation advantage is structural rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterA flagged key risk of below-average business quality on other dimensions — including return on assets of 1.6 and modest operating margin — offsets the strong cash conversion; the cash advantage alone may be insufficient to drive a meaningful valuation re-rating without improvement across multiple quality dimensions. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 0.13, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a notably low multiple that implies the market has not fully credited the earnings trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 15x over the next 12 months as earnings estimates are revised higher and the market progressively re-rates the growth story.
CounterA structural discount applied for geographic concentration and a flagged key risk of below-average business quality can keep the multiple persistently compressed regardless of growth momentum; a low PEG can persist indefinitely when the market applies a consistent qualitative penalty.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a standout 34% beat in the quarter ended November 2025 — demonstrating a sustained pattern of delivering results well above market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the established track record.
CounterA stock that has already crossed above its price target after a sustained beat streak may already be pricing in continued outperformance; any quarter that merely meets estimates could trigger a sell-the-news reaction given that the margin of safety has been exhausted.
More than 80% of revenue is tied to North America — a concentration level significant enough to trigger a hard block — meaning any regional macroeconomic shock would translate almost entirely into an earnings shock with no meaningful offset from non-North American operations.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- North American revenue contribution falls below 70% over 4 consecutive quarters as the non-North American book grows meaningfully, reducing the cliff exposure.
CounterDeep regional scale in specialty insurance and connected-device protection may generate underwriting efficiencies and claims predictability that a more geographically distributed book cannot replicate, making the concentration a source of competitive advantage rather than fragility.
Free cash flow is running at 203% of reported net income, indicating the business generates substantially more real cash than accounting earnings alone reflect — a strong signal of earnings quality and balance sheet durability that supports dividend coverage and capital flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 120% for the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the cash-generation advantage is structural rather than episodic.
CounterA flagged key risk of below-average business quality on other dimensions — including return on assets of 1.6 and modest operating margin — offsets the strong cash conversion; the cash advantage alone may be insufficient to drive a meaningful valuation re-rating without improvement across multiple quality dimensions.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Assurant delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a 34% beat in November 2025 — and screens attractively at a forward P/E of 11.5x with a PEG of 0.13, while free cash flow runs at 203% of net income signaling strong cash generation. Yet the stock has already crossed above its price target and a hard geographic concentration gate was triggered with more than 80% of revenue in a single region, making the setup one that favors patience for existing holders rather than new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 203% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,211,614 (0.067% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 126.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $279.28 has reached target $276.71. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.06
Upside
-11.6%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Peer rank at 3.9, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Multiples Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x from the current 11.5x, eliminating the valuation advantage versus the earnings growth rate.
- P3North America Concentration Hard Block
Trip ifNorth American revenue share falls below 70% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods, indicating meaningful geographic diversification that reduces the regional concentration.
- P4Free Cash Flow Exceeds Net Income
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the cash-conversion premium.