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Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company providing property and casualty products across Earthquake, Casualty, Inland Marine, Crop, and Fronting categories in admitted and E&S markets. It grew gross written premiums from $16.6 million at founding to $2.0 billion by end... Read more

$121.91+17.2% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#3 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $115.01Target $142.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$164.17+34.7%6 analysts
$142.83our TP
$121.91price
$164.17mean
$186

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth62.7%
Beta0.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$80-34.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is concentrated in California and we are exposed more significantly to California loss activity and regulatory environments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $115.25Resistance $136.22

Price Targets

$115
$143
A.Upside+17.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PLMR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $142.83 (+17.2%), stop $115.01 (−6.0%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PLMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.83 (+17.2% upside). Target $142.83 (+17.2%), stop $115.01 (−6.0%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $115.01.

What are the risks of investing in PLMR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is PLMR overvalued or undervalued?

Palomar Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PLMR?

14 analysts cover PLMR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Palomar Holdings, Inc. do?Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company providing property and casualty products across Earthquake, Casualty,...

Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company providing property and casualty products across Earthquake, Casualty, Inland Marine, Crop, and Fronting categories in admitted and E&S markets. It grew gross written premiums from $16.6 million at founding to $2.0 billion by end of 2025, and is the 2nd largest earthquake insurer in California and 3rd largest in the U.S.

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