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Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company offering earthquake, casualty, inland marine, crop, and fronting products through admitted and E&S market subsidiaries with an A-rated financial strength. Gross written premiums grew to $2.0 billion in 2025; the company... Read more

$113.27+19.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield17.41%
Stop $105.48Target $135.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$155.33+37.1%6 analysts
$135.14our TP
$113.27price
$155.33mean
$168

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Palomar Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth59.7%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia31%
    10-K Item 1: 'California represents our largest current exposure with 31% of our gross written premiums for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMProductearthquake insurance28%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 28% of our gross written premiums were related to earthquake insurance'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.6
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $107.51Resistance $132.07

Price Targets

$105
$135
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PLMR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $135.14 (+19.3%), stop $105.48 (−7.4%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the PLMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.14 (+19.2% upside). Target $135.14 (+19.3%), stop $105.48 (−7.4%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $105.48.

What are the risks of investing in PLMR?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PLMR overvalued or undervalued?

Palomar Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PLMR?

14 analysts cover PLMR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $155.

What does Palomar Holdings, Inc. do?Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company offering earthquake, casualty, inland marine, crop, and fronting...

Palomar Holdings is a specialty insurance company offering earthquake, casualty, inland marine, crop, and fronting products through admitted and E&S market subsidiaries with an A-rated financial strength. Gross written premiums grew to $2.0 billion in 2025; the company distributes through retail agents, wholesale brokers, and program administrators, with California as its largest state at 31% of GWP.

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