United Fire Group is a cheap property-and-casualty insurer on a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and a breakout, but the price is 13.3% above the analyst target and near its 52-week high, so upside is already largely consumed.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $55.55. Price sits above the model's entry target of $55.55; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away).
United Fire Group writes property and casualty insurance — including commercial fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety — through a network of approximately 850 independent property and casualty agencies and 160 surety agencies,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $55.55. Price sits above the model's entry target of $55.55; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — United Fire Group, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS United Fire : UFG celebrates 40 years of trading by ringing the Nasdaq closing bell - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS What is DOWLING & PARTN's Forecast for UFCS Q3 Earnings? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS United Fire Group Price Target Raised to $60.00/Share From $57.00 by Piper Sandler - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS United Fire Group Price Target Raised to $60.00/Share From $57.00 by Piper Sandler - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS Does UFCS’s Q2 Underwriting Beat and Revenue Jump Reshape the Bull Case For United Fire Group? - Yahoo Finance Singapore — Yahoo Finance Singapore positive
Generated 2026-11-02T11:33:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendments to the Non-Employee Director Stock Plan at the May 20, 2026 Annual Meeting, increasing shares available from 450,000 to 865,114 and extending the plan's expiration to December 31, 2034. Routine plan amendment, not a departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $55.55. Price sits above the model's entry target of $55.55; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $49.73 reached (−12.5%), stop $52.99 (−7.2%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $49.73 reached (−12.5% from $56.83); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $49.73 reached (−12.5%), stop $52.99 (−7.2%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $52.99.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
United Fire Group, Inc trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover UFCS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $59.
What does United Fire Group, Inc do?United Fire Group writes property and casualty insurance — including commercial fire and allied lines, other liability,...
United Fire Group writes property and casualty insurance — including commercial fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety — through a network of approximately 850 independent property and casualty agencies and 160 surety agencies, licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The company operates as a single reporting segment, deriving revenue primarily from earned premiums, and withdrew from direct personal lines insurance in 2020 with no remaining exposure as of December 31, 2025.