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HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $152.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5.

HCI Group is primarily a property & casualty insurance company serving Florida as its primary market through subsidiaries HCPCI and TTIC. Revenue comes from insurance premiums on homeowners policies, largely assumed from Citizens and other Florida insurers. The company also... Read more

$152.20+37.0% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#1 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $143.71Target $208.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.4:1
Analyst target$245.00+61.0%2 analysts
$208.25our TP
$152.20price
$245.00mean
$255

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $152.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.3/10
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.8
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn33.2%
ROE40.5%
Rev Growth52.1%
Beta1.15
Dividend1.03%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$110-27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida
    10-K Item 1A: 'our business is concentrated in this manner...conditions affecting losses in the state of Florida'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 5.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $148.15Resistance $160.80

Price Targets

$144
$208
A.Upside+36.8%
A.R:R5.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $152.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $208.25 (+36.8%), stop $143.71 (−5.9%), A.R:R 5.4:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HCI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $208.25 (+37.0% upside). Target $208.25 (+36.8%), stop $143.71 (−5.9%), A.R:R 5.4:1. Stop-loss: $143.71.

What are the risks of investing in HCI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is HCI overvalued or undervalued?

HCI Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.8 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HCI?

8 analysts cover HCI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $245.

What does HCI Group, Inc. do?HCI Group is primarily a property & casualty insurance company serving Florida as its primary market through...

HCI Group is primarily a property & casualty insurance company serving Florida as its primary market through subsidiaries HCPCI and TTIC. Revenue comes from insurance premiums on homeowners policies, largely assumed from Citizens and other Florida insurers. The company also operates Exzeo (insurance technology, approximately 82.5% owned, now public as XZO) and a commercial real estate division.

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