HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Conditional: concentration high:2>=2 — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Buy now at $154.65. A.R:R 4.9:1 at $154.65 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $208.25 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$54 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FLOIR.
HCI Group is a Florida-focused property and casualty insurance holding company whose primary Insurance Operations segment underwrites homeowners coverage in Florida and selected southeastern US states through HCPCI and TTIC subsidiaries. The company also operates Exzeo... Read more
Buy now at $154.65. A.R:R 4.9:1 at $154.65 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $208.25 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$54 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FLOIR. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Deep value: 54% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — HCI Group, Inc.
Latest news
- HCI Group (HCI) rises higher than market: Key facts - MSN — MSN positive
- Implied volatility surging for HCI Group stock options - MSN — MSN positive
- Implied Volatility Surging for HCI Group Stock Options - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research negative
- Does HCI Group (NYSE:HCI) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist? - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Momentum Shift Insight | Q4 2025: EPS Tops Views - Geographic Trends - Newser — Newser positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1A: 'our insurance business is primarily in Florida. Thus, any catastrophic event or other condition affecting losses in Florida could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.'
- HIGHregulatoryFLOIR10-K Item 1: 'the Florida Department of Financial Services, Office of Insurance Regulation ("FLOIR") has the authority to conduct an examination whenever it is deemed appropriate.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $154.65. A.R:R 4.9:1 at $154.65 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $208.25 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$54 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FLOIR. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Deep value: 54% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $208.25 (+34.7%), stop $144.24 (−7.2%), A.R:R 4.9:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $208.25 (+34.3% upside). Target $208.25 (+34.7%), stop $144.24 (−7.2%), A.R:R 4.9:1. Stop-loss: $144.24.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FLOIR; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.
HCI Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.8 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
8 analysts cover HCI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $245.
What does HCI Group, Inc. do?HCI Group is a Florida-focused property and casualty insurance holding company whose primary Insurance Operations...
HCI Group is a Florida-focused property and casualty insurance holding company whose primary Insurance Operations segment underwrites homeowners coverage in Florida and selected southeastern US states through HCPCI and TTIC subsidiaries. The company also operates Exzeo (insurance technology), Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and a Commercial Real Estate segment; revenue is predominantly from Florida premiums.