A property and casualty insurer combining a quality score well above the investment threshold — driven by 38% return on equity, 33% net margins, and 148% free cash flow conversion — with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 34% above consensus and roughly 28% upside to the analyst consensus target represents one of the more compelling quality-value combinations in the current screen, offset by elevated leverage and downward-trending earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Favorable Asymmetry 4x Reward Risk→Stable
- Deep Value Forward Pe 9x→Stable
- High Quality 148pct Fcf Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Buy now at $187.64. A.R:R 1.9:1 at $187.64 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $205.42 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 9.5%.
HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company — and manages two consolidated reciprocal insurance exchanges. Revenue is generated predominately in the State of Florida, derived... Read more
Buy now at $187.64. A.R:R 1.9:1 at $187.64 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $205.42 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 9.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Value play: 45% MoS with quality 8.5. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=financial services 7/10). Suitability: speculative.
About HCI Group, Inc.
About HCI Group, Inc.
HCI Group's insurance operations are predominately concentrated in Florida, writing homeowners and property casualty policies through admitted carriers HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company plus two consolidated reciprocal exchanges. The company employed 594 full-time workers at December 31, 2025, completed the Exzeo IPO on the NYSE (symbol: XZO) in November 2025 while retaining approximately 82.5% of outstanding shares, and is subject to examination by Florida's FLOIR whenever deemed appropriate.
HCI earns insurance premiums on homeowners and commercial residential policies in Florida and, to a lesser extent, northeast and southeast states, with claims exposure concentrated in the Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm season running June 1 through November 30 each year. Reinsurance contracts renew June 1 annually, so changes in reinsurance pricing flow through earnings beginning that date; the company targets reinsurers rated 'A-' or better by A.M. Best or requires full collateralization. A substantial portion of historical premium volume originated from policy assumptions under Citizens depopulation programs; ongoing organic renewals and selective new assumptions represent the primary growth path. Exzeo contributes fee revenue through its proprietary SAMS, Harmony, ClaimColony, and AtlasViewer software platforms sold to affiliated and, since the November 2025 IPO, to unaffiliated carriers. The real estate segment holds marinas, retail shopping centers, and corporate office parks in Florida that generate lease income from unaffiliated tenants.
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Florida's regulatory and catastrophe environment poses a structural concentration risk for HCI. HCPCI and TTIC each hold a Demotech 'A Exceptional' financial strength rating accepted by major Florida mortgage companies, but neither holds an A.M. Best rating that some mortgage lenders require — a gap that could limit policy growth if lenders impose stricter requirements. The 10-K notes that conditions affecting Florida would have a more pronounced effect on HCI than on insurance companies that are more geographically diversified, and that reinsurance availability and cost — subject to prevailing market conditions beyond the company's control — represent the principal external variable moderating catastrophe exposure.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From HCI Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — HCI Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HCI Group (HCI) rises higher than market: Key facts - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Implied volatility surging for HCI Group stock options - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Implied Volatility Surging for HCI Group Stock Options - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research negative
- NEWS Does HCI Group (NYSE:HCI) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist? - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Momentum Shift Insight | Q4 2025: EPS Tops Views - Geographic Trends - Newser — Newser positive
Generated 2026-09-05T16:11:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1: 'The entirety of our revenue is generated in the U.S. and predominately in the State of Florida.'
- MEDIUMCustomerCitizens10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our historical revenue has been generated from policies assumed from Citizens and other insurance companies'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $187.64. A.R:R 1.9:1 at $187.64 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $205.42 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 9.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Value play: 45% MoS with quality 8.5. Target $205.42 (+9.5%), stop $179.28 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $205.42 (+9.5% upside). Target $205.42 (+9.5%), stop $179.28 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $179.28.
Thin upside margin: 9.5%.
HCI Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
10 analysts cover HCI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $242.
What does HCI Group, Inc. do?HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI...
HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company — and manages two consolidated reciprocal insurance exchanges. Revenue is generated predominately in the State of Florida, derived from organic renewals and Citizens policy assumptions. The company majority-owns Exzeo (82.5% after November 2025 IPO), an insurtech providing insurance software platforms.