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AGCOAGCO CorporationHold5.7·$121.21+3.36%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGCO has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 41% and trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 13.9x, but below-average business quality, a stock sitting near its near-term resistance target, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 signal that institutional sentiment is more cautious than the earnings track record alone would imply.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Average Business QualityDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Attractive Valuation For SectorDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Earnings in 4 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

$121.21-3.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 17 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.93%
IncomeYield1.02%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout11.19%sustainable
Stop $113.95Target $119.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$129.87+7.1%15 analysts
$119.08our TP
$121.21price
$129.87mean
$105
$160

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE17.5%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta1.07
Dividend1.02%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
6.9
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.59%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $111.36Resistance $121.51

Price Targets

$114
$119
A.Upside-3.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Insider activity: 0.59%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGCO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $119.08 (-1.8%), stop $113.95 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.08 (-3.6% upside). Target $119.08 (-1.8%), stop $113.95 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $113.95.

What are the risks of investing in AGCO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is AGCO overvalued or undervalued?

AGCO Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AGCO?

21 analysts cover AGCO with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $130.

What does AGCO Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to...

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

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