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AGCOAGCO CorporationSell4.8·$126.50-0.15%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGCO has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 41% and trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 13.9x, but below-average business quality, a stock sitting near its near-term resistance target, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 signal that institutional sentiment is more cautious than the earnings track record alone would imply.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Average Business QualityDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Attractive Valuation For SectorDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.50: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

$126.50-11.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 18 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.11%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout16.18%sustainable
Stop $117.46Target $144.69(default +15%)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$124.47-1.6%15 analysts
$144.69our TP
$126.50price
$124.47mean
$98
$151

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.50: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(7), earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(7) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-11.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE11.8%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta1.09
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV57%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-03Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On August 3, 2026, AGCO Corporation (the "Company") announced a series of executive leadership changes effective August 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
7.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.1
Roa
2.3
Operating Margin
2.3
Net Margin
2.6
Roe
3.9
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.2
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.65%=HEAVYExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.9>=5.5NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(7)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
87 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.22Resistance $128.87

Price Targets

$117
$145
A.Upside-11.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.50: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $117.46. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $144.69 (-11.0% upside). Prior stop was $117.46. Stop-loss: $117.46.

What are the risks of investing in AGCO?

Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is AGCO overvalued or undervalued?

AGCO Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGCO?

23 analysts cover AGCO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $124.

What does AGCO Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to...

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

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