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AGCOAGCO CorporationHold5.6·$118.32+1.57%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGCO has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 41% and trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 13.9x, but below-average business quality, a stock sitting near its near-term resistance target, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 signal that institutional sentiment is more cautious than the earnings track record alone would imply.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Average Business QualityStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Attractive Valuation For SectorStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

$118.32+7.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 17 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.25%
IncomeYield1.03%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout11.19%sustainable
Entry $109.88(support + ATR)Stop $104.77Target $118.44(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$128.50+8.6%14 analysts
$118.44our TP
$118.32price
$128.50mean
$105
$159

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $118.32 has reached target $118.44. No upside to wait for. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE17.5%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta1.07
Dividend1.03%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.91bearish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.0
Bollinger
2.1
52w Position
6.5
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.62%=HEAVYMomentum 6.6>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $108.01Resistance $120.86

Price Targets

$105
$110
$118
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGCO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $118.32 has reached target $118.44. No upside to wait for. Target $118.44 (+0.1%), stop $104.77 (−12.9%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.44 (+7.8% upside). Target $118.44 (+0.1%), stop $104.77 (−12.9%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $104.77.

What are the risks of investing in AGCO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AGCO overvalued or undervalued?

AGCO Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AGCO?

21 analysts cover AGCO with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $129.

What does AGCO Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to...

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

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