Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
AGCO · Why this verdict
Why AGCO (AGCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AGCO generates strong cash relative to earnings and has beaten estimates in 3 of 4 quarters, but weak quality scores, declining revenue, heavy insider selling and a price already at the analyst target leave almost no upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AGCO converts earnings to cash at an excellent 143% FCF-to-net-income, which supports dividends and balance-sheet flexibility. Quality breakdown | FCF/net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh conversion can come from working-capital release in a cyclical downturn, and there is no competitive moat to protect it. | ||
Quality of 3.5 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and revenue declining 9%. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0 and revenue turns positive YoY. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFarm-equipment demand is cyclical, so low margins and shrinking sales could be a trough that reverses. | ||
At $110.91 the stock trades within 1.2% of the $112.20 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.11 against 11.0% downside. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised meaningfully above $120 over 12 months to restore upside. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets tend to be raised after strong earnings, and Q3 EPS of $1.05 beat by 21.5%, so a target hike is plausible. | ||
AGCO beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average 37.1% surprise, including a 21.5% beat on 2026-10-29. Avg surprise pct | Next report in February 2027 beats consensus again. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise is inflated by a 113% beat off a very low estimate, and the July 2026 quarter missed. | ||
Insiders sold about $57.6M, equal to 0.753% of market cap, with an elevated put/call ratio of 1.82 showing defensive positioning. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap and the put/call ratio falls under 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLarge sales may be pre-planned diversification after a strong stretch rather than a bearish view. | ||
AGCO converts earnings to cash at an excellent 143% FCF-to-net-income, which supports dividends and balance-sheet flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh conversion can come from working-capital release in a cyclical downturn, and there is no competitive moat to protect it.
Quality of 3.5 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and revenue declining 9%.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 and revenue turns positive YoY.
CounterFarm-equipment demand is cyclical, so low margins and shrinking sales could be a trough that reverses.
At $110.91 the stock trades within 1.2% of the $112.20 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.11 against 11.0% downside.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised meaningfully above $120 over 12 months to restore upside.
CounterTargets tend to be raised after strong earnings, and Q3 EPS of $1.05 beat by 21.5%, so a target hike is plausible.
AGCO beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average 37.1% surprise, including a 21.5% beat on 2026-10-29.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Next report in February 2027 beats consensus again.
CounterThe average surprise is inflated by a 113% beat off a very low estimate, and the July 2026 quarter missed.
Insiders sold about $57.6M, equal to 0.753% of market cap, with an elevated put/call ratio of 1.82 showing defensive positioning.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap and the put/call ratio falls under 1.0.
CounterLarge sales may be pre-planned diversification after a strong stretch rather than a bearish view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 143% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=5)
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $775,069 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 3.9 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.10
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.1<1.5@spot outcome against Catalyst at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.10.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.2, Sentiment at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.2, Technical at 3.0, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80% from the current 143%.
- P2Weak Quality And Shrinking Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline widens to more than 15% YoY from the current 9%.
- P3Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $103.15 stop-loss level while the analyst target stays below $115.
- P4Earnings Surprise Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1.5% of market cap over 90 days.