AerCap presents a compelling combination of deep value — forward price-to-earnings of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.20 — with an exceptional earnings track record of four consecutive beats averaging 32% above consensus, yet the stock trades within 1.8% of the analyst take-profit target with a 0.37-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio; the underlying business quality is high but the entry geometry is unfavorable at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Deep Value Attractive Multiple→Stable
- Breakout Technical Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $147.84 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.6% away).
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $147.84 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — AerCap Holdings N.V.
Latest news
- NEWS AerCap (AER) Stock: Is It Near Support | Q4 2025: EPS Beats Forecasts - Sell Rating - Xã Châu Thành — Xã Châu Thành positive
- NEWS AerCap Publishes Corporate Responsibility Report for 2025 - PR Newswire — PR Newswire neutral
- NEWS Aercap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) Given Average Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS ARGA Investment Management LP Trims Stock Position in Aercap Holdings N.V. $AER - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS AerCap Holdings NV (AER) Stock Down 4.0% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 85/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $147.84 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $139.58. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $148.44 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $139.58. Stop-loss: $139.58.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.
AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover AER with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $166.
What does AerCap Holdings N.V. do?AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United...
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.