Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸Attractively valued
AER · Why this verdict
Why AerCap Holdings (AER) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AerCap is a high-margin (34%) aircraft lessor at 8.3x forward earnings with a perfect four-quarter beat streak and strong momentum, but at $158.52 it is within 2.4% of the $162.34 analyst target and near its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 8.3x is attractive and margins are strong at 34%, with best-in-class margins versus peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 10x while margins hold above 30%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow is -54% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag typical of lessors that buy aircraft with capital, so earnings may overstate distributable cash. | ||
The price of $158.52 is only 2.4% below the $162.34 analyst target, versus 11.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.2. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above $170 for meaningful upside to emerge. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA target based on a haircut figure may be conservative, and a beating streak could trigger upward revisions. | ||
AerCap has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +32.4%. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates at the next report (2027-02-05). | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA very large average surprise reflects conservative estimates, and fading surprises could disappoint after the run-up. | ||
Growth scores only 1.9 and free cash flow is -54% of net income, though quarterly revenue rose to $2.42B in September 2026 from $2.31B a year earlier. Quality breakdown | Revenue should grow above 5% YoY and FCF/NI turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterLessor free cash flow depends on aircraft purchase timing, and rising lease rates support revenue. | ||
RSI is 74, overbought, the put/call ratio is 2.06, implied volatility is 102% and the price is within 0.9% of its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day moving average as RSI normalizes below 70. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.8 show broad buying, and put activity may be hedging. | ||
Forward P/E of 8.3x is attractive and margins are strong at 34%, with best-in-class margins versus peers.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 10x while margins hold above 30%.
CounterFree cash flow is -54% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag typical of lessors that buy aircraft with capital, so earnings may overstate distributable cash.
The price of $158.52 is only 2.4% below the $162.34 analyst target, versus 11.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.2.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above $170 for meaningful upside to emerge.
CounterA target based on a haircut figure may be conservative, and a beating streak could trigger upward revisions.
AerCap has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +32.4%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates at the next report (2027-02-05).
CounterA very large average surprise reflects conservative estimates, and fading surprises could disappoint after the run-up.
Growth scores only 1.9 and free cash flow is -54% of net income, though quarterly revenue rose to $2.42B in September 2026 from $2.31B a year earlier.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should grow above 5% YoY and FCF/NI turn positive.
CounterLessor free cash flow depends on aircraft purchase timing, and rising lease rates support revenue.
RSI is 74, overbought, the put/call ratio is 2.06, implied volatility is 102% and the price is within 0.9% of its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day moving average as RSI normalizes below 70.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.8 show broad buying, and put activity may be hedging.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -54% FCF/NI
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 4.6 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $622,560 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.69
- ▸Above max pain $140
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:94d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=-0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Technical at 3.6, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation High Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 8.3x.
- P2Limited Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds 15% above the $162.34 analyst target, above about $187.
- P3Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P4Weak Growth And Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $2.1B from current $2.42B.
- P5Overbought With Heavy Put Activity
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% from the current $158.52.